AtlasIntel: Lula’s approval rating stands at 48.8% and government starts 2026 on tight ground

The work of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is approved by 48.8% of Brazilians and disapproved by 50.7%, according to the Latam Pulse survey, by the AtlasIntel institute in partnership with Bloomberg, released this Thursday (18). Another 0.4% said they did not know or preferred not to answer.

The numbers practically repeat the November scenario and indicate stability in the perception of the government. The result consolidates the interruption of the recovery movement observed throughout the second half of the year and keeps the general assessment at a tight level on the eve of the election year.

With this performance, the government enters 2026 with a still negative balance in public opinion. In September, Lula had recorded the best level of approval since January 2024, when the positive evaluation surpassed the negative for the third time. Since then, however, disapproval has returned to the top for the second month in a row.

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In the government’s qualitative assessment, 48.9% classify management as bad or terrible, while 46.5% consider it excellent or good. Only 4.6% rate the government as regular. Despite the still unfavorable situation, there was an increase of 2.1 percentage points in the share that considers the administration to be excellent or good in relation to the previous month.

According to the institute, the scenario still leaves room for a possible recovery throughout 2026, especially if the government manages to politically capitalize on measures that have a direct impact on the population’s pockets, such as the exemption from Income Tax for lower brackets and the end of mandatory driving schools.

Inflation returns to the radar

One of the factors that had contributed to the improvement in Lula’s popularity in the second half of the year was the perception of relief in prices. This movement, however, lost strength in the most recent round.

The perception of inflation increased slightly again, going from 5.1 to 5.4 points, while expectations increased from 4.4 to 4.9 points. The data signals a moderate recovery in concern about the cost of living, after months of decline.

Even so, both indicators remain below the peaks recorded at the beginning of 2025, which indicates that inflationary pressure remains more controlled, despite recent signs of loss of momentum in the short term.

The AtlasIntel survey interviewed 18,154 Brazilian adults between December 10th and 14th, 2025, through random digital recruitment. The margin of error is one percentage point, plus or minus.

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