The president () seeks at least the neutrality of the parties that make up the government by making one in which they will be in the race in 2026. The intention, according to allies, is to avoid the formation of formal alliances on the right.
In the government’s sights, at this first moment, are the and the . This strategy will depend on the definition of opposition candidacies, subject to changes if the governor (Republicans) is launched next year.
This Wednesday (17th) of the year, Lula stated that ministers and parties will have to decide what project they defend for the country in light of what he did for Brazil compared to past governments — what he called “the moment of truth”.
“Next year is the year in which we have the opportunity, not only because we will be in dispute, but because each minister, each party that you participate in, will have to be in the electoral process and will have to define which side they are on. It will be inexorable for people to define the speech they are going to make”, he said.
Then, the ministers (Casa Civil) and (Finance) presented the government’s actions in opposition to the management of (PL).
According to the president’s collaborators, Lula wants to know who will be by his side during the 2026 election. Despite having the support of ministers, the demand will extend to those occupying second-tier positions to retain party support.
The idea is to take advantage of the uncertainty regarding right-wing candidacies to increase the number of supporters in center parties by consolidating platforms in the states.
It will be up to the minister (Institutional Relations Secretariat) to complete a mapping of the political godparents of these office holders. These vacancies could be used to add more support in the states, with the dismissal of Bolsonaro supporters.
The maintenance of the senator’s (PL-RJ) candidacy for the Presidency will serve as justification to raise criticism of his father’s government, which ended up defeated by Lula in 2022.
Amid the dispute between opposition figures, Lula government organizers will work to consolidate regional support in an attempt to prevent the consummation of national alliances in support of Tarcísio’s candidacy, who is still considered by the PT to be the president’s most likely opponent.
This strategy is advancing in the MDB, whose São Paulo wing defends supporting the governor of . But regional agreements should force the acronym’s neutrality. Lula has as allies some of the party’s main directorates, especially in the North and Northeast, such as Pará, Alagoas, Maranhão and Ceará.
Furthermore, other negotiations are ongoing. In Mato Grosso do Sul, for example, the PT is discussing withdrawing its candidacy for the Senate to support the Minister of Planning, (MDB), if she decides to run in the state. The only condition would be that she does not publicly endorse the re-election of the governor, who is now a member of the PP and a supporter of Bolsonaro.
Embraced by the national president of the PT, Edinho Silva, the effort to neutralize the PSD will depend on the political fate of Tarcísio, who has the party president, , on the government team.
Although he states that he should support Tarcísio, Kassab also mentions the names of governors Ratinho Júnior (PR) and Eduardo Leite (RS) as potential candidates for the Presidency, if the governor of São Paulo decides not to run. The is discarded.
Furthermore, Kassab’s strategy will depend on what Tarcísio has in store for him in his eventual presidential campaign. Kassab does not hide his intention to run for Palácio dos Bandeirantes with the support of the governor, but Bolsonarists are opposed to the candidacy and the MDB intends to launch the mayor of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes, for this vacancy.
The situation of the PSD in Minas Gerais has also been cited as an example of contradiction. Even with Alexandre Silveira (Minas and Energy) in government, the PSD of Romeu Zema (Novo), Matheus Simões, and announced that he will be the party’s candidate for governor.
PSD members assess, with reservations, that the case of Minas Gerais is yet another indication that Kassab should, at most, leave the party neutral, with each state in a different situation. In Bahia, for example, the PSD is expected to be on the PT’s platform.
Emedebistas, in turn, assess that Lula’s message was directed at the PSD, as Kassab began to make more explicit movements in opposition and support for Tarcísio’s presidential candidacy. In relation to the MDB, they say that the trend is already towards neutrality and that the party’s ministers will campaign for the president regardless of the party’s position.
PT members claim that the scenario today is more favorable than in the previous election, when MDB launched Tebet for the Presidency and the PSD remained neutral in both rounds. But, in the states, politicians from both parties campaigned for Lula’s election.
“I believe that in the election now there will be greater support, with the strength that the government has”, says deputy Zeca Dirceu (PT-PR). He highlights that, with the election closer and the main projects already approved in Congress, the Executive will have more strength to rearrange its team. “In the first years of management, the government exercised this force in a simpler way, to avoid breaking the relationship”, he says.
The Republicans, PP and União Brasil continue with the tendency to launch or join a presidential candidacy in opposition to Lula, even with positions in the PT government. The PP removed the Minister of Sports, André Fufuca (MA), from management positions, but avoided a rupture. He is working to be a candidate for the Senate with the support of Lula in Maranhão.
União Brasil expelled the Minister of Tourism, Celso Sabino, but the president of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP), maintains the appointment of ministers of National Integration and Communications, in addition to commanding state-owned companies such as Codevasf. The acronym has left the definition of the exchange of this and other positions chosen by party politicians in the hands of the government itself.
