The national minimum wage will rise again in 2026, but the debate around future values gained a new dimension after statements by the Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, who pointed to levels well above what is currently predicted. With the increase already approved for next year, the question arises: after all, how high can the minimum wage reach in Portugal?
This week, the Council of Ministers approved the increase in the national minimum wage to 920 euros gross in 2026. The increase represents 50 euros more than the current value and is part of the income agreement signed in October 2024 between the Government, UGT and employer confederations. According to this commitment, the minimum wage is expected to increase by 50 euros per year until 2028.
According to the Minister of the Presidency, António Leitão Amaro, this is a “significant” increase, highlighting that, in around a year and a half of PSD CDS-PP governance, the minimum wage will have increased by a total of 100 euros. The official also highlighted that this trajectory results from a policy of increasing income based on an economic context that he considers favorable.
What is planned until 2028
According to the current income agreement, the minimum wage should continue to rise gradually in the coming years. After the 920 euros foreseen for 2026, the calendar points to new annual increases of 50 euros, which would put the SMN at 970 euros in 2027 and 1,020 euros in 2028, if the commitment is fully fulfilled.
According to Notícias ao Minuto, this route was designed to guarantee predictability for companies and workers, avoiding abrupt increases that could compromise economic sustainability, especially in more exposed sectors.
However, this scenario does not explain why, in recent days, there has been talk of values such as 1,500 or even 1,600 euros.
The statements that changed the tone of the debate
The discussion gained new intensity after Luís Montenegro publicly raised the bar for salary targets. At the closing of the X National Congress of Social-Democratic Mayors, in Porto, the prime minister stated that the country should aim for more than a minimum wage of around 1,100 euros.
“We want more. We want the minimum wage to reach 1,500 or 1,600 euros”, he stated, arguing that this objective is only possible with more robust economic growth, between 3% and 4% per year. The Government leader also added that the average salary should be close to 2,500 to 3,000 euros, reinforcing the idea of a long-term development project.
According to the same publication, these statements came a few days after the prime minister had spoken of lower targets, which raised doubts about whether it was a concrete commitment or just a long-term political ambition.
Despite the media impact, there is, for now, no formal commitment that points to a minimum wage of 1,600 euros. The only binding framework continues to be the income agreement signed in 2024, which defines increases until 2028 and does not go beyond just over a thousand euros.
According to government sources cited by Notícias ao Minuto, the higher values mentioned by Luís Montenegro should be understood as a strategic vision and not as a promise with a defined timetable. Everything will depend on the evolution of the economy, productivity and the capacity of companies to absorb more significant salary increases.
The Prime Minister himself recognized that these goals require the creation of wealth and sustained economic growth, rejecting the idea of salary increases disconnected from economic reality.
What to expect in the coming years
For now, the most realistic scenario points to a continuation of gradual increases, with the minimum wage only surpassing the thousand euros barrier at the end of the decade, if there are no changes to the current agreement. The discussion around 1,600 euros appears more as a political sign of ambition than as a guaranteed target.
Even so, the Government’s statements show that the issue of salaries will continue to be at the center of the political debate, especially as new income negotiations and labor market reforms approach.
Whether the country will be able to get there is an answer that will depend on the coming years and the performance of the Portuguese economy.
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