SIC/Expresso survey
Luís Marques Mendes and Henrique Gouveia e Melo appear glued to Ventura. As the margin of error is around 3%, the three are in a technical tie. As for the second round, if it happens, André Ventura will lose, regardless of the opponent.
Exactly one month before the ICS and ISCTE survey for SIC and Expresso puts André Ventura ahead in voting intentions with 17%, two points more than his main opponents.
Luís Marques Mendes and Henrique Gouveia e Melo appear gluedboth with 15%. As the margin of error is around 3%, the three are in a technical draw.
António José Seguro maintains fourth place, with 11%, and João Cotrim Figueiredo has 8%, five percentage points more than last month.
Catarina Martins reaches 4%. António Filipe remains at 2%. Joana Amaral Dias, candidate supported by ADN, and Jorge Pinto, candidate supported by Livre, have 1%.
This opinion study also records 2% of voters for other possible candidates, 7% of abstentionists and 16% undecided – six percentage points less than in November.
And the second round?
As for the second round, if it happens, André Ventura loses, regardless of the opponent.
If it is with Luís Marques Mendes, he wins with 49%. If it is with Gouveia and Melo, the admiral wins with 47%. If it goes with António José Seguro, the candidate supported by the PS gets 45%.
What if it’s not against André Ventura? Insurance loses to Marques Mendes25% contra 37%. But also for Gouveia e Melo26% contra 36%.
If it is between Gouveia e Melo and Marques Mendes, the latter wins with 35% against 31%.
This opinion study was coordinated by ICS and ISCTE for SIC and Expresso and fieldwork carried out by GfK Metris between December 5th and 13th. The information was collected through personal interviews, at the respondents’ homes, with a simulation of voting in a ballot box. 2619 individuals were contacted and 903 interviews were validated. The maximum margin of error is +/- 3.25%, with a 95% confidence level.
