PL candidate appears with 32.4% of voting intentions; margin of error is 2.6 percentage points
A survey carried out by the Institute shows (PL) as favorite for the government of Mato Grosso in 2026. The senator appears with 32.4% of voting intentions in one of the scenarios and 43.1% in the other. The research was carried out between December 12th and 16th, 2025, in 61 municipalities and hear from 1,502 voters. The margin of error is 2.6 percentage points.
Election situation for governor
- Wellington Fagundes (PL) – 32.4%
- Jayme Campos (União Brasil) – with 23.4%
- Otaviano Pivetta (Republicans) – 21.5%
- Natasha Slhessarenko (PSD)- 6,3%
- Don’t know/Didn’t give an opinion – 6.4%
- None/Blank/Null – 10%
In a second scenario, in which Senator Jayme Campos did not run for office, Wellington Fagundes’ advantage would increase. Being 15 points ahead of second place, Pivetta.
Scenario 2
- Wellington Fagundes – 43.1%
- Otaviano Pivetta – 28.1%
- Natasha Slhessarenko – 8,4%
- Don’t know/Didn’t give an opinion – 7.1%
- None/Blank/Null – 13.2%
The results show Fagundes as the most competitive name for the Government of Mato Grosso,
Paraná Pesquisa also carried out a simulation of a possible second round, between the first two candidates. And if the elections were held today, Fagundes would be elected. The senator also shows consistent growth in the latest surveys carried out, being a leader in all the latest surveys released. Low rejection is also a factor that impacts the congressman’s favoritism.
Simulation of possible second round
- Wellington Fagundes (PL) – 48.6%
- Otaviano Pivetta – 32.8%
The survey also carried out a survey on what people think of Mauro Mendes’ government, in power since 2019, which does not allow him to be re-elected again. 82% of ombudsman voters approve of the government, compared to 13.9% who disapprove and 4.1% who do not know or have no opinion.
Assessment and Approval of the administration of Governor Mauro Mendes
- Excellent – 29.2%
- Boa – 38,7%
- Regular – 22,5%
- More than – 3%
- Terrible – 5.1%
- Don’t know/didn’t give an opinion – 1.5%
Leaving the government, Mendes is the favorite for a seat in the Senate, with 65.6% of voting intentions.
