According to Marcos Rubin, founder of Veeries, a brand specializing in market intelligence in the agribusiness universe, corn ethanol is the most dynamic sector of Brazilian agribusiness: “those who didn’t enter will regret it.”
There are many projects for the commodity in progress, with most companies consolidated in the industry. Including those who traditionally produce alcohol from sugar cane. This growth in production, to give you an idea, was the pivot of the recent termination of the agreement between Vibra, the largest fuel distributor in Brazil and owner of the BR gas stations operation, with Copersucar, of sugarcane ethanol.
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“I think 2026 will be the first year of testing. We will have a lot of ethanol on the market and we need to have some change in the demand profile to absorb this amount of product. We will probably have negative pressure on sales prices”, said the executive. He was the guest on episode 11 of Raiz do Negócio, his road between the countryside and Faria Lima, a partnership between InfoMoney e The AgriBiz.
Another topic to keep an eye on is the possibility of a drop in the price of oil, a direct competitor to ethanol – both from sugarcane and corn. Which could represent greater difficulty in this scenario of greater supply.
Inflation and safrinha
There was a fear, at the beginning of the year, that food inflation could be one of the biggest villains of the IPCA in 2025. However, that was not exactly what happened. And it’s still a little early to predict exactly how production could affect the macroeconomic scenario, according to Rubin. “We have a large harvest on the radar, which still depends on the weather between December and February. And it also depends on the weather”, he commented.
Some commodities, for example, are working at minimum prices, such as soybeans, bran, specifically DDG – a by-product of the corn ethanol harvest, widely used as livestock feed. “That helps on the protein side as well.”
In short, commodities depend on supply shocks, according to the executive. And, as we are in the middle of the harvest, it is necessary to wait a few more months for a more complete view.
Timeline
There was a certain delay in soybean planting in Brazil this year. According to Rubin, we have two “Brazils” in this equation. One, early soybeans, which has a lot of off-season corn, with no records of delays, covering most of the area. “They were better than last year.” Another, with the opposite scenario, where, in fact, there were delays, which will generate direct impacts on the corn harvest.
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But this, for the executive, is more of a local concern than a general one. “Ultimately, we have a better scenario than last year. The off-season area should grow by almost 5%, a significant increase.”
