The US currency ended the day at its highest level since August 1st; market follows Budget vote
The commercial dollar closed at R$5.529 this Friday (19.Dec.2025), up 0.12%. It reached the highest price since August 1st, when it closed at R$5.545. The North American currency registered R$5.498 at its minimum and R$5.546 at its maximum.
The dollar rose 2.18% in the week. Ibovespa, the main index of B3 (São Paulo Stock Exchange), registered an increase of 0.46% at 4:40 pm, at 158,647 points. In the accumulated result for the week, the index fell 1.31%.
Investors react to the latest news from the National Congress. The Senate is expected to vote on the Ploa (Annual Budget Bill) for 2026 this Friday (Dec 19, 2025). The text, which has already been approved by the CMO (Mixed Budget Committee), extends to 2026. It also defines a primary surplus of R$34.5 billion next year.
The (Central Bank) published that Brazil’s external accounts recorded a primary deficit of . This was the largest negative balance recorded in the month since 2021. The IDP (Direct Investment in the Country) balance was US$84.2 billion from January to November, the highest value for the period since 2012.
Investors are still reacting to statements by BC president, Gabriel Galípolo, about Brazil’s monetary policy. He signaled that there is no “closed doors” for the January Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) decision. In practice, it does not rule out a possible cut in the basic rate, the Selic, despite the minutes of the last meeting saying that the job market has signs slowdown and the base interest must remain at this level of 15% per year for “quite prolonged”.
Investors are also keeping an eye on the electoral scenario. from AtlasIntel/Bloomberg released this Thursday (18.Dec.2025) indicates that, in simulations of the 2nd round for the Presidency of the Republic, the president (PT) appears ahead in all scenarios analyzed. In a possible dispute against the governor of São Paulo, (Republicanos-SP), he has 49%, compared to 45% for his opponent.
In the confrontation with the senator (PL-RJ), who at the beginning of the month, the president registered 53%, while the congressman had 41%.
Foreign capital
Foreign investors withdrew R$2 billion from the Stock Exchange this month until Wednesday (Dec 17), the latest data available. For the year, the balance is positive at R$25.4 billion. When considering initial offerings (IPOs) and secondary offerings (follow-ons), the result for the year is positive at R$26.8 billion.
