The European Union is on its way to saving, once again, a match ball with a political agreement (on the Ukrainian agenda, an existential issue for Europe) and a kick forward more typical of rugby than of diplomacy (for Mercosur). The most decisive European summit in recent times opted this Thursday for a multimillion-dollar lifeline to prevent its bankruptcy: the use of Russian assets, despite the refusal of Belgium and the ambiguity of Italy, is making way, although the possibility of using the European budget as an emergency lever to provide cover for kyiv is not ruled out.
Be that as it may, the country invaded by Russia will have EU funds for Russian troops at least for a while: that is 100% certain in Brussels. That was the fundamental thing about this summit.
The Union is also risking its external credibility with the definitive green light for the trade agreement with Mercosur, weighed down by the refusal of France and Poland. The Italy of Giorgia Meloni, the main protagonist of the meeting in Brussels, demanded an extension of a few days, a month at most, to overcome internal pressures. . Brazil has admitted that it is already studying this delay, according to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The European Commission, which aspires to get the Italian company on board, has finally proposed delaying the signing until mid-January.
Prolong and pretend (extend and pretendin European slang) is one of the specialties of Brussels. And the EU has set to work to save the summit. Belgium, the country where most of the Russian sovereign reserves immobilized by sanctions are kept, opened this Thursday to finding “commitments” and lifting its ironclad refusal to deliver that money to kyiv in the form of a “reparation loan”; provided, of course, that the rest of the partners agree to put sufficient guarantees on the table to avoid losses for the Belgians.
The conclusion is clear: if Russian assets are not mobilized, the option that seems to be imposed, the leaders will use another legal solution to finance Ukraine through the Union’s budget margin, community sources familiar with the debates between the leaders point out. Letting Ukraine fall now is not a possibility: don’t throw that financial lifeline to kyiv.
That decision, after weeks of squabbling and formidable pressure from Germany, is an achievement of the first magnitude, even more so with Trumpism showing its claws. Although the fine print is left for later. Because although building that lifeline—with frozen Russian assets or with the common budget margin—seems like a complicated legal juggling exercise, deep down it is a top-level political decision.
With the lights on, however, neither the maneuver on Ukraine nor the EU’s international credibility can be shored up, in low times due to the crossfire between Russia’s attacks, Europe’s state of denial towards Trumpism, the torpedo on the waterline that the document on the US Security Strategy represented and the traditional internal messes in the EU, with several far-right prime ministers or with the populists as a minority partner in some governments. The European Councils are increasingly complicated with this panorama, according to the sources consulted. At stake is Europe’s role as a geopolitical actor in an increasingly convulsive global board full of predators.
The leadership of the community institutions was pessimistic on Thursday with the future of the agreement with Mercosur, which hangs by a thread due to France’s refusal and Italy’s last-minute misgivings. The president of the European Council, António Costa, and the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who have invested enormous political capital in signing the agreement, were trying to convince Meloni. Finally, this delay is imposed until January.
The Italian Prime Minister has assured that she is not opposed to the agreement, but that she still needs time to convince her farmers. Also that its final position will depend on the decisions of the Commission: the executive arm of the Union has been racking its brains for days to analyze what transfers Rome would want, which has not yet fully clarified its list of considerations to sign.
Farmers protests
Meanwhile, the soundtrack of the summit was filled with sirens and tractor horns throughout the day, and the slogans of farmers protesting against the pact with Mercosur in the streets of the community capital.
This agreement with the Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which would create the largest free trade space in the world, with more than 700 million consumers, is delayed once again when its final approval was almost close after 25 years of negotiations. But Brussels can save face: Mercosur is still standing. Even more so if the political agreement on Ukraine goes ahead.
A fiasco with Mercosur and, above all, with Ukraine, were a catastrophe for the European project. Europe was risking its raison d’être in this European summit before Christmas. The heads of State and Government, meeting in Brussels, will not go home until there is no white smoke to finance Ukraine, as the Portuguese António Costa has promised.
In this context, all the pressure was on the Belgian Government of Bart De Wever, which has the key that would unlock the treasury of the majority of Russian sovereign assets, up to 210 billion euros. “If it is completely mutualized and eliminated for our country [el riesgo]then we will jump into the abyss together with all Europeans and hope that the parachute will sustain us,” De Wever launched early Thursday morning in the Belgian Parliament.
The Kremlin has threatened to consider using its sovereign assets as the events of war (reason for war). And countries like Austria or Italy fear for their companies, which continue to do business there, despite the war, in addition to reprisals from Moscow. Belgium also fears Russian hybrid war. Hence, it demands solid guarantees from the rest of the partners so as not to be left alone with the Russian claims and the reprisals of President Vladimir Putin.
“I know that Russia is intimidating different countries because of this decision,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “But we must not fear the threats; we must fear the weakness of Europe,” he remarked at a press conference, shortly after meeting with the Belgian De Wever, to try to convince him to give way to that idea. The Flemish nationalist’s phone and agenda are on fire. A good number of leaders have called him or met with him to try to unblock the decision.
Tusk: “Money today or blood tomorrow”
The countries closest geographically to Ukraine and Russia, along with Germany, have led the pressure in recent days. “We have a simple choice: it’s money for today or blood for tomorrow. And I’m not just talking about Ukraine, but Europe,” . “All leaders must finally rise to the occasion,” he added upon his arrival in the community capital.
Using Russian sovereign reserves to provide Ukraine with a zero-interest loan – which it will only have to repay if Russia pays for the damage caused in the war – was also the favorite option of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. “I hope that we can resolve things and that we can embark together on a journey that shows the European Union a sign of strength and determination with respect to Russia,” he said upon his arrival in Brussels.
The European Union promised at the beginning of Putin’s post-imperialist invasion that it would support Ukraine for as long as necessary. Now, with the United States disappeared from the equation of support for kyiv, the community club is left alone with the bill for the invaded country. It is also under the focus of Washington to continue disbursing funds to purchase its weapons. The message is very clear: without these funds, Europe will not have a place at the dialogue table, where not only the future of Ukraine but the security of the Old Continent will be decided.
The moment for Europe is complicated. It is besieged on all sides: Russia’s hybrid war, the excesses and threats of interference from the United States, the assertiveness of China and, internally, the Eurosceptic and reactionary European parties. Late on Thursday, the possibility of ending up using Russian assets was gaining weight—with the European Commission putting pressure on Belgium by land, sea and air—and the delay of the Mercosur signing to January was announced. The kick forward so typical of Brussels yesterday, today and always, 2025 version.
