U.S. intelligence reports continue to say the president’s goal is to occupy all of it, but also to reclaim all the pieces of it that were once part of the former Soviet empire, six sources with knowledge of the U.S. said. This image prevails in the services despite the fact that negotiations are underway to end it, which are expected to fall short of Russia’s ambitions in terms of the territories it aims to take back.
At the same time, the picture emerging from these reports is completely different from the one presented by US President Donald Trump and his negotiators for peace in Ukraine, who claim that Putin wants the conflict to end. The most recent of the reports dates back to late September, according to one of the sources.
The assessments of US agencies also contradict the Russian leader’s assurances that he is not a threat to Europe.
The conclusions have been stable for three years
The US conclusions have remained consistent since Putin launched the full-scale invasion in 2022. They largely align with the views of European leaders and intelligence agencies that he seeks to control all of Ukraine as well as territories of former Soviet bloc countries, including NATO member states.
“Intelligence has always shown that Putin wants more,” Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, told Reuters in an interview. “The Europeans are convinced of this. The Poles are absolutely convinced. The Baltic countries think they are the first.”
Russia controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including most of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, which form the industrial heart of Donbass, parts of Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, as well as Crimea, the strategically important Black Sea peninsula.
Putin considers Crimea and these four regions as Russian territory. According to two sources with knowledge of the matter, Trump is pressing Kiev to withdraw its forces from the small part of Donetsk it still controls as part of a proposed peace deal — a demand rejected by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the majority of Ukrainians.
“The president’s team has made tremendous progress in ending the war,” and Trump has said a peace deal “is closer than ever,” a White House official said, without commenting on the intelligence reports.
Progress in safety guarantees
Trump’s negotiators — his son-in-law Jared Kushner and billionaire real estate investor Steve Witkoff — have been negotiating a 20-point peace plan with Ukrainian, Russian and European officials for weeks.
Although US officials say progress has been made, serious disputes remain, mainly over territory.
According to a White House official, Kushner and Witkov met on Friday with Ukrainian negotiators in Miami and were to hold talks with Russian representatives over the weekend.
US, Ukrainian and European negotiators reached a broad agreement at talks in Berlin on Monday on strong, US-backed security guarantees for Ukraine, according to four European diplomats and two sources with knowledge of the discussions.
One source and one diplomat said the guarantees were linked to Zelensky’s concession of territory to Russia. However, other diplomats stressed that this has not been decided and that alternatives are being considered, as the Ukrainian president has ruled out ceding territory.
Diplomats noted that the guarantees, which will come into effect after the signing of a peace deal, envisage the deployment of a mainly European security force in neighboring countries and in areas of Ukraine far from the front lines, aimed at deterring a future Russian attack.
According to one source, Ukrainian armed forces will be limited to 800,000 troops, although several diplomats have said Russia is seeking a lower limit, which the Americans appear willing to discuss.
The US will provide intelligence and other support, and the package will be ratified by the US Senate. According to two sources, Washington’s plan also includes US-backed air patrols over Ukraine.
Zelensky appeared cautious on Thursday, saying: “There is one question to which I still cannot get an answer: what exactly will these security guarantees do?”
It remains highly uncertain, however, whether Putin will accept such guarantees, as he has repeatedly rejected the deployment of foreign troops to Ukraine.
Russia insists on its territorial claims
Putin offered no real concessions, though at his annual press conference he said he was ready to discuss peace. He argued that his terms should be accepted as Russian forces have advanced 6,000 square kilometers this year.
It is unclear how US officials have reacted to Putin’s demands. Witkov has hinted in the past that Russia has a right to claim the four regions and Crimea.
Some Trump administration officials have acknowledged that Putin may not be willing to settle for anything less than his original goal of conquering Ukraine.
“I don’t know if Putin wants to make a deal or if he wants to take over the whole country. These are things he has said openly,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at a press conference on Friday.
“We know what they were initially after when the war started. They have not achieved these goals,” he added.
