The latest meteorological forecasts indicate the return of the climatic phenomenon El Niño already next year. According to the available data, it should gradually strengthen in the second half of the year and last during the winter season 2026/2027. If these forecasts are confirmed, it can significantly affect global weather conditions, especially in North America, but also in Europe, the portal reports
Analyzes already point to changes in the global climate system that correspond to conditions typical of the period before the onset of El Niño. This strengthens the credibility of long-term models. Experts focus mainly on developments in the northern hemisphere, where the most significant impacts are expected.
In recent weeks, a gradual warming of surface waters has been recorded, especially in the western part of the ENSO region (El Niño-Southern Oscillation – a phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean that alternates warm “El Niño” and cold “La Niña” phases). Changes are also visible below the surface of the ocean, where a large warm area is formed at greater depths – one of the key prerequisites for the formation of El Niño.
Such underground temperature anomalies also preceded the onset of El Niño in the 2023/2024 season. Climatologists therefore closely monitor the development of winds, ocean currents and the pressure field over the tropical Pacific.
A strong signal of an approaching El Niño is also visible in the seasonal models. Forecast by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicates a transition to El Niño conditions already during the summer of 2026, with persistence until winter. Although the model so far expects a moderate episode, past experience shows that the actual intensity is often higher.
Historical data shows that El Niño has a significant impact especially on North America during the winter. As for Europe – it is weaker and less direct. Average data from past El Niño events, however, indicate a tendency toward lower pressure over the northern continent and higher pressure over the southwest. That it may lead to cooler weather in northwestern Europe and milder conditions in the western and central parts of the continent. At the same time, the potential for snowfall is increasing in some areas of Central and Southeastern Europe.
What is ENSO and why is it important?
El Niño and La Niña are two opposing phases of the ENSO climate phenomenon, which is linked to changes in surface water temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These phases usually alternate at intervals of one to three years. The last El Niño occurred during the 2023/2024 season, while the winter of 2009/2010 is also among the more significant historical episodes.
During El Niño, waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean warm, leading to a drop in air pressure and increased cloudiness and precipitation in the area. Conversely, the western Pacific experiences more stable and drier conditions. These changes in turn affect the global circulation of the atmosphere and the weather over large parts of the planet.
