In the midst of peace negotiations for war in ukraine and, more voices and analyzes emerge about the possible ending and, above all, Russia’s intentions and plans. One of them is that of Calm Karelianresearcher at the Finnish Foreign Policy Institute, who does not believe that ending the war is in Russia’s interest.
While The United States and Russia hold a meeting in Miami this weekend To talk about the end of the war, the reality on the ground is that the Russian army launched 97 dronesshot down 75 unmanned aircraft during Saturday night.
Tyyne Karjalainen warns that Russia is not seeking peace. “There is no reason to think that Russia would use these negotiations to end the war,” Karjalainen said during a visit to the .
According to the expert, Moscow conceives any negotiating process as a tool to reinforce its position of power, not as a real path to a ceasefire.
Negotiate to gain influence, not to end the war
Karelian sotinere que, even if Russia made concessions, they would not be motivated by the desire for peacebut for broader strategic objectives, including improving its bilateral relations with the United States or repositioning itself internationally after years of sanctions.
“Much stronger international pressure should be brought to bear on Russia to end the war through negotiations,” insists the researcher. In her analysis, The West has not been firm enoughneither economically nor militarily, to force Moscow to change course.
The European mistake after Crimea
One of the most critical points of the researcher’s analysis focuses on the European response after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. “Europe did not strengthen deterrence, defense, nor react firmly enough”he points out. On the contrary, he increased trade with Russia, under the idea that economic interdependence would avoid a major war.
“As a researcher in Europe, this is really shocking to me. We have always known that this is how Russia operates and yet we ignore it,” she says.
Sanctions, military support and a clear strategy
Dear Karelian, The recipe involves tougher economic sanctions and much stronger military support for Ukraine. This would show that Russia cannot achieve its objectives through military means. “But that has not been done. Ukraine could have received much stronger support,” he laments.
Moscow’s objective, he adds, goes beyond Ukraine’s control. Russia seeks to reconfigure European security arrangements, creating a sphere of influence into which NATO and the European Union cannot expand.
“Even a peace process could take decades”
The researcher insists and warns that there are no shortcuts. Europe must prepare both for continued military operations in Ukraine and for Russian hybrid influence across the continent. “Even a peace process could take decades”he explains.
However, Karjalainen avoids personalizing the failure. “There is no reason to criticize Trump for not achieving peace in a day or a week”he concludes. The problem, he emphasizes, is not the lack of talks, but the absence of a firm and coherent Western strategy towards Russia.
