The maintenance of (PL)’s candidacy for Santa Catarina, even with the space opened in Rio de Janeiro by the decision of senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) of , was interpreted by the center as a sign that the brother could still withdraw from the national election — a scenario, however, discarded by the family.
Flávio was considered the favorite for re-election to the Senate, which led the former president (PL) to draw up a plan to move Carlos to Santa Catarina with the aim of expanding the family’s presence in the House – which he needed to put pressure on the (Supreme Federal Court) in the coup plot.
Flávio announced on the 5th that he had gone to Planalto, with “the mission of continuing our nation project”.
Even with the space open in Rio and a fight on the right in Santa Catarina, Carlos arrived in the capital of Rio de Janeiro six days after his older brother’s announcement and changed his electoral title to São José, in the metropolitan region of Florianópolis.
His allies say that the candidacy is irreversible and that, therefore, it made no sense to delay the change any longer. He decided to live in São José, where he has attended a shooting club for years and has a group of friends. In addition, he has been traveling around the state, attending meetings and events with potential voters and political leaders.
Upon resigning from his mandate in Rio, Carlos stated that he loves the state, but leaves “with the serenity of someone who knows he is fulfilling a greater mission.”
“I’m going to Santa Catarina to fulfill a calling that I couldn’t fulfill here, as I made a choice that was always guided by my heart. It’s not an escape, it’s the continuation of a fight”, he stated in the gallery of the City Council.
It was for Santa Catarina that another of Bolsonaro’s sons, Jair Renan, ended up being elected councilor, in Balneário Camboriú in 2024, even though he had recently arrived from Brasília. The state is one of the most Bolsonarist in the country, which allies point out as favorable to a majority candidacy. In 2022, the former president had 69.3% of valid votes in the second round, against just 30.7% for (PT).
The main problem caused by the migration was the split in the local right. Governor Jorginho Mello (PL) was betting on the re-election of senator Esperidião Amin (PP) and the candidacy of deputy Caroline De Toni (PL), but now he will have to give up one of the seats to Carlos on Bolsonaro’s recommendation. In 2026, two seats will be up for grabs for the Senate.
As a result, deputy Caroline De Toni is likely to be passed over and is considering changing parties to stay in the race. Carlos, in fact, has defended support for her name, but the double act bothered the group that supports Amin’s re-election, and the federation between PP and União Brasil threatens to break with the governor if this happens. Even members of the PL began to criticize Carlos’ change.
Because of this scenario, politicians from the center claim that it would be natural for Bolsonaro’s eldest son to review his plans and run for the Senate in Rio, in his brother’s seat. Not doing so, they say, signals that Flávio’s candidacy for the Presidency could be withdrawn later, for Lula. The group’s favorite is the governor of , (Republicans).
Carlos’ allies, however, say he intends to change his life. This was also argued by Senator Flávio, who in an interview with CBN on Friday (12) said that his brother’s decision had already been made. “Carlos has this dream of Santa Catarina, he loves that state, he has lived there for several years, he is in love with Santa Catarina, he would make this move regardless of my decision,” he said.
Bolsonarists also claim that the scenario for the Senate in Rio is more congested, with the possible candidacy of governor Cláudio Castro (PL) and the attempt by the party leader in the Senate, Carlos Portinho, to run for re-election, in addition to other local leaders interested in the vacancy, such as the leader of the bench in the Chamber, Sóstenes Cavalcante, and deputies Altineu Cortes, Hélio Lopes and Carlos Jordy.
When contacted, Carlos and Flávio did not return contact for the report.
