The possibility of a armed intervention of USA in Venezuela These hours of tension raise the question about the military capacity of the South American country to confront a power as large as the North American one. Since the emergence of chavismo original, in 1999, and until the present, with Nicolas Maduro in power since 2013, the Armed forces They constituted a pillar of the political project and, at the same time, gave themselves power and autonomy that they lacked. It is no small fact that for 11 years it has been led by the current Minister of Defense, General Vladimir Padrino Lópezan alumnus of Hugo Chavez at the Military Academy, to whom he was loyal during the coup d’état of 2002.
López is the architect of the expansion of the military institution. In a country jealous of its figures It is really unknown how much of the GDP is allocated to the military and from that doubt arises another related to the true operational capabilitybeyond the harangues of Maduro and his staff. Some analysts maintain that the Armed Forces have modernized, while others believe that they have obsolete and limited materials to face an eventual incursion from the USA.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), whose conclusions are often widely cited, There are 12 batteries of long-range S-300 missiles in Venezuela, nine Buk systems and 44 medium-range Pechora units, and an arsenal of Russian-made Igla-S portable launchers. At the end of October, Maduro said that about 5,000 of those had been placed in “key air defense positions.” short-range, low-altitude anti-aircraft missiles. They have the ability to shoot down cruise missiles, drones, helicopters and airplanes that fly at low altitude. The Russian deputy Alexei Zhuravlevfirst deputy chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, assured Gazeta.ru that new Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2E air defense systems were recently transported to Caracas on Il-76 transport planes.
A military stop at the Tiuna military base during a visit by Nicolás Maduro, in May 2019. / JHONN ZERPA / MIRAFLORES PRESS / EUROPA PRESS
Iranian drone versions
Venezuela has become the only South American country with drones with attack capabilities: Antonio José de Sucre 100 and 200 (ANSU-100 and 200) derive from modernized versions of Iranian devices.
A week ago, the operation of a Russian mobile air defense system, the P-18-2M early warning radar, deployed at a military base east of Caracason Margaret Island. The air defense capacity is supported by the F-16 and F-5 fighters purchased from the United States decades ago, about 20 combat aircraft Sukhoi. They are used in turn russian helicopters transport and combat, such as the Mil Mi-17 and Mil Mi-35.
Always according to the IISS, The Army has about 92 tanks T-72B1, 150 BTR-80A, 50 BM-21 Grad and more than 50 2S19 Msta-S, largely of Russian origin, 123 BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles and another 81 AMX-30 tanks. It has also acquired Chinese VN-4 armored vehicles.
The Bolivarian Navy has 76 ships among which a Mariscal Sucre class frigate stands outmanufactured in Italy, nine oceanic and coastal patrol boats, four of them acquired from Spain, and others from China. It has a Type 209 submarine, of German origin, and 20 aircraft. It has received Peykaap-III fast attack boats equipped with missile launchers from Iran.
In human resources, the Army has about 63,000 members, the Navy, 25,500, the Air Force about 11,500 and the National Guard about 23,000. The Venezuelan media speaks of a situation of discouragement prior to the start of the crisis with the US, and marked by low salaries and desertions. The Government has activated the Bolivarian Militia. Maduro assures that he has grown at eight million enlisted. The true number of citizens who joined is also a mystery beyond official propaganda.
The president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro / Europa Press/Contact/Pedro MATTEY
guerrilla tactics
Minister López highlighted weeks ago the importance of the Independence 200 exercises with which the Bolivarian National Armed Forces have increased their operational capacity and synchronicity. A Special Law for the Comprehensive Defense Command has made it possible to establish greater harmony between armed and non-armed methods of struggle. That seems to be the defensive key of madurismo. The Minister of the Interior, Diosdado Cabello, said that the country is prepared for a “prolonged war”. The so-called “war of all the people” is a strategy that Fidel Casto adapted from the experience of the Vietnamese in their fight against the United States. Chávez made it his own and is based on the strategic premise that a hypothetical interference is resisted on the basis of dispersed armed struggle and sabotage. The guerrilla tactics would be vital in this case.
For now, Caracas is beginning to show new signs. Along the highway that connects the capital with La Guaira, on the Caribbean coast with Caracas, concrete “hedgehog” barriers have been installed that make it difficult for vehicles to move. A sign in the city that does not bring good omens.
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