Inmet forecast indicates higher volumes in the North and South and below-historic precipitation in the Southeast and Northeast for the season that starts this Sunday (21)
The Southern Hemisphere’s summer begins this Sunday (21), and the National Institute of Meteorology () predicts conditions that could cause above-average rainfall in much of the North and South regions of Brazil, as well as a few areas in the Northeast and Central-West.
In the North, most states should have more precipitation and higher temperatures. The exceptions are southeast Pará and the state of Tocantins, which may have rainfall volumes below the historical average.
“The predicted average air temperature indicates values above the climatological average in Amazonas, central-south Pará, Acre and Rondônia, with values reaching 0.5 degrees Celsius (°C) or more above the historical average for the period (Tocantins). In the northernmost states of the region, Amapá, Roraima and northern Pará, temperatures close to the historical average are predicted”, estimates Inmet.
On the
In the South Region, the forecast indicates favorable conditions for rainfall above the historical average in all states, with the highest volumes predicted for the southeast and southwest mesoregions of Rio Grande do Sul, with accumulations up to 50 mm above the historical average for the quarter.
“For temperature, forecasts indicate values predominantly above average during the summer months, mainly in the west of Rio Grande do Sul, reaching up to 1°C above the climatology”.
North East
For the Northeast Region, there is an indication of rain below the climatological average in practically the entire region, mainly in Bahia, central-south of Piauí, and most of the states of Sergipe, Alagoas and Pernambuco. The forecast volumes are up to 100 mm below the historical average for the quarter.
On the other hand, rainfall volumes close to or above average are predicted in the center-north of Maranhão, north of Piauí and northwest of Ceará.
Midwest
In the Central-West Region, rainfall volumes are expected to be above the historical average only in the western sector of Mato Grosso. In the state of Goiás, volumes below the climatological average for the period predominate.
For the rest of the region, volumes close to the historical average are forecast. “The predicted temperatures should be predominantly above the climatological average in the coming months, with deviations of up to 1°C above the climatology in the central range of the region”, says InMet.
Southeast
With a predominance of rainfall below the climatological average, the Southeast Region should record volumes up to 100 mm below the historical average for the quarter.
It should rain less in the mesoregions of Minas Gerais (center of the state, Zona da Mata, Vale do Rio Doce and Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte). The temperature must be above average by up to 1°C, according to InMet experts.
Summer
The season continues until March 20, 2026. In addition to the increase in temperature, the period favors rapid changes in weather conditions, with the occurrence of intense rain, hail, wind with intensity varying from moderate to strong and electrical discharges.
Characterized by rising temperatures throughout the country with the Southern Hemisphere’s greatest exposure to the Sun, summer has longer days than nights.
According to InMet, in the Southeast and Central-West regions, rain in this period is caused mainly by the action of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (ZCAS), while in the north of the Northeast and North regions, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ZCIT) is the main system responsible for the occurrence of rain.
On average, the highest volumes of precipitation should be observed over the North and Central-West regions, with totals in the range between 700 and 1100 millimeters. The two are the largest regions in the country and are home to the Amazon and Pantanal biomes, which experience periods of rain during the period.
*With information from Agência Brasil
Published by Nícolas Robert
