Creation of 64 thousand jobs in November exceeds forecasts, but worsening of the rate to 4.6% leads the market to bet on an interest rate cut in early 2026
They managed to generate jobs during the longest shutdown in their history, but unemployment rose in November to the highest level in more than four years, putting to the test the interest rate pause signaled by the (Fed, the North American central bank) the week before last. 64 thousand jobs were created in November, above the median of 50 thousand found by Projeções Broadcast. In October, however, 105,000 jobs were cut, and there were downward revisions to the numbers for September and August. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) pointed to a situation of stagnant employment in the USA.
The main negative impact came from federal government vacancies, with the US president cutting the federal workforce to the lowest level in more than a decade. In October alone, 162,000 jobs were eliminated; Added to the cuts of another 6,000 in November, losses have reached 271,000 since January. Excluding layoffs in the public sector, the scenario in the private sector appeared more positive, according to economists.
The warning signal was given by the unemployment rate, which reached 4.6% in November, above the 4.4% in September. This is the highest level in more than four years. The market predicted stability of the indicator.
On Wall Street, the view is that the consolidated payroll for October and November goes against expectations of a longer maintenance of American interest rates.
“The labor market data today is not encouraging and opens the door for an early Fed move in 2026,” says CIBC Economics economist Ali Jaffery. The Canadian bank now predicts two and not just one interest rate cuts next year
The president of the Fed, , said, the week before last, that the directors of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opted for a new cut of 25 basis points at the December meeting because the labor market was cooling more gradually than expected.
According to him, job creation in the US was averaging 40,000 per month since April, but there was an overestimation in these numbers of around 60,000, which would result in a loss of 20,000 jobs per month.
For TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins, today’s payroll report did not change the story, especially given the BLS’ reminder that the latest data is “even” less reliable than usual. The Fed may even cut interest rates in January, but the “situation does not seem particularly urgent”, he assesses.
“It is not possible to accurately quantify the full impact of the federal government shutdown on payroll employment estimates for October and November,” the BSL warned.
With divergent payroll data, the market increased expectations that the Fed could cut interest rates at the first meeting of 2026, scheduled for January. However, the chances of maintenance still prevail.
For Capital Economics, as long as unemployment in the US stabilizes in the coming months, the Fed may not be so concerned about the level seen at the end of November. Charles Schwab’s senior investment strategist, Kevin Gordon, recalls, however, that the unemployment rate in the US has risen 1.2 percentage points since its lowest level 30 months ago. “We have never seen this type of increase without the economy already being in recession,” he adds.
Pimco, with more than US$2 trillion in assets under management, assessed the payroll data as “mixed”, but in line with its expectations and, therefore, does not intend to change its base scenario. He also thinks it is “unlikely” that the Fed’s view will change. The US Central Bank will be able to maintain its patient stance in conducting monetary policy, reinforces Oxford Economics.
“An economy with resilient growth despite monetary policy shocks and a stable job market will receive new stimulus, anticipated in the first half of 2026,” says Pimco economist Tiffany Wilding, mentioning a lesser impact from tariffs and tax cuts.
The acting chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Pierre Yared, downplayed concerns about the rise in the US unemployment rate, in an interview with Bloomberg TV, on Tuesday (16). White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, one of the strong candidates for Fed presidency, stated that there is “plenty of room” for the Fed to cut interest rates.
In Bradesco’s view, only with December’s data will it be possible to have a more accurate assessment of the real labor situation in the world’s largest economy. “With current data, the tendency is for the Fed to maintain a dovish stance”, assesses the bank, in a note to clients. The next payroll will be released on January 9, 2026, at 10:30 am Brasília.
*With information from Estadão Conteúdo
Published by Nícolas Robert
