Gold recently reached a new record by surpassing $4,380 per ounce, reflecting a combination of economic and political factors that are influencing investor behavior. The anticipation of interest rate cuts in the United States, associated with signs of a slowdown in inflation and the North American labor market, reinforced the attractiveness of the precious metal as an alternative to other financial assets.
According to the newspaper Correio da Manhã, the value of gold reached US$4,383.76 per ounce, surpassing the maximum recorded in October and accumulating a significant increase in value since the beginning of the year. This movement comes in a context marked by geopolitical tensions, budgetary weaknesses in the United States and a climate of lower confidence in the dollar.
Effect of uncertainty on markets
The rise in the price of gold is directly linked to the perception of global risk. In periods of economic instability, international conflicts or political impasses, investors tend to look for assets considered safer. Factors such as the trade war led by Donald Trump and the North American budget shutdown have fueled demand for the yellow metal.
In the section Explicador Renascença, owned by the radio station with the same name, it is highlighted that in October of this year the value of gold had already soared, due to the weakening of the US dollar, which made this metal more accessible to investors operating in other currencies. Added to this was the Federal Reserve’s more flexible monetary policy, which reduced the attractiveness of assets that depend on high interest rates.
A climb that is not linear
Despite successive records, it highlights that gold’s trajectory has not been without corrections. After reaching historic highs, the price fell by more than 5% in a single day, in a profit-taking movement that had not been seen since the first months of the Covid-19 pandemic, in 2020.
The impact on Portuguese reserves
The appreciation of gold has direct effects on national accounts, especially in countries with significant reserves. According to Renascença, Portugal holds around 382.7 tons of gold, which places the country in 11th place in the world ranking of reserves.
According to the 2024 Monetary Policy Implementation Report, cited by the same publication, the value of Banco de Portugal’s gold reserves rose from around 31 billion euros to 46.3 billion, following the rise in the price of the metal in international markets. This increase translates into a significant increase in the value of the State’s financial assets.
Why gold continues to attract investors
The interest in gold is not just explained by cyclical factors. The metal maintains a historical status of protection against inflation and monetary devaluation, functioning as a store of value in adverse contexts.
Furthermore, when real interest rates are low or negative, gold becomes more competitive against assets that offer fixed returns. In a scenario of prolonged uncertainty, the precious metal continues to be seen as a safe haven, both for private investors and public institutions.
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