The PP has won the elections with 43% of the votes. Those of María Guardiola have obtained 29 seats, but they do not reach the majority (33) and will need help to achieve the investiture. The option that seems most feasible is to reissue an agreement with Vox, like the one that led Guardiola to the presidency of the Board in 2023.
We analyze the results of the elections in a regional and national key.
Extremadura continues its rightward movement
Yesterday there was a historic milestone for the region: for the first time, the sum of the right-wing parties exceeded 50% of the votes. Furthermore, it did so with enormous ease, exceeding 60%. He beat the figure from four years ago and also the result from 2011, when the popular José Antonio Monago obtained 46% of the votes months before the PP won the general elections with an absolute majority.
The PP has improved its 2023 result by four points, going from 39% to 43%. However, it is relevant to emphasize that they have not won votes in absolute terms—their percentage increases due to low participation. The one that is clearly rising is its competitor on the right, Vox, which has shot up from 8% to 17%.
The PSOE collapses
The socialists have worsened their 2023 result, which was already their worst historical result in Extremadura. The party that exceeded 50% of the vote on four occasions—in 1983, 1991, 2003 and 2007—is now at 26%. Since 2019, in just six years, the socialists have lost almost half of their support.
Vox rises strongly in towns and cities
The far-right party has skyrocketed to almost 17%, improving all its results in Extremadura, both in regional, European and general elections.
The party has had transversal support in municipalities of all sizes. He has achieved 15% of the vote in small towns and 18% in those with more than 50,000 inhabitants. In fact, if we look at the three large Extremaduran cities, Vox almost ties the PSOE in Cáceres and Mérida, and surpasses it in Badajoz.
Two voter leaks have been decisive: the PP fed on the PSOE, and Vox fed on the PP
In the pre-election surveys, three major movements were sensed. The first is a leak from the PSOE: 11% of its 2023 voters would have now voted for the PP. The socialists would also have some leaks in the direction of Vox, significant but minor (3%).
To these losses, the PSOE adds another to its left: another 15% of its 2023 voters would have now voted for Unidas por Extremadura. This explains the erosion of the first and the resistance of the second.
The third movement goes from the PP to Vox. The popular ones would have lost 12% of their 2023 votes in the direction of Vox. In exchange they receive 9% of Vox’s 2023 voters, but given its smaller size, this transfer does not compensate at all for the first one, which has a volume six times greater.
Participation was very low
Participation has been 63%, much lower than that of 2023 (70%) and any other previous election. Furthermore, this figure will presumably drop when votes cast from outside Spain are counted, as is usually the case.
Abstention is the other great movement. The PSOE, which had many undecided in the polls, and which has had the worst result, was surely the party that left the most voters at home.
And in a national key?
The result of the right in Extremadura (60% between PP and Vox) not only shatters its result in the regional elections of 2023 (47%), it also improves its figures in the general elections of that same year (51%) and in the European elections of 2024 (51%). That is, Extremadura has also moved to the right since the 2023 general elections.
The question is obvious: To what degree does the right-wing of Extremadura signal a national right-wing?
A mechanical calculation is useful: with this Sunday’s votes, in a hypothetical general election, the PSOE would lose two seats in Extremadura (one for PP and another for Vox). Also a simulation: if Vox and the PP grow throughout Spain as they have done in Extremadura, they would have a very comfortable majority.
Of course, it is impossible to specify to what extent Extremadura’s right-wing movement can be generalized to the rest of the country. But it is also evident that there is some relationship. First, because regional elections are almost never disconnected from the national arena. And second, because the surveys for general hypotheticals also describe a right-wing electorate.
