From one extreme to another: the bitcoin broke records in 2025, however, recently, all of the year’s gains were erased and continues to fall. Since October, the asset has gone from a high above US$120,000 to below US$90,000.
Bitcoin is “naturally” considered to be highly volatile when compared to other assets, explains investment specialist André Barbosa. However, 2025 was an atypical year for cryptocurrency, which “broke” the four-year cycle expected by the market: three years of growth and one year of decline.
Within this pattern, this year would be the last year marked by an increase in the asset. The fall – when profits are made – was expected for 2026, but was brought forward.
Since its historic high in October, bitcoin has already devalued by around 30%.
What motivated the rise and fall of bitcoin
In addition to the already awaited profit making, experts explain that bitcoin’s volatility movements in 2025 can be explained by a series of factors, mainly the interest rate scenario in the United States and technology companies.
In December, the , in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, a reduction already expected by the market.
Pressure related to North American monetary policy grows, as Jerome Powell’s term comes to an end and .
Furthermore, the expert explains that many investors who had already purchased bitcoins years ago decided to sell when aiming to reduce exposure given the expectation of losses next year. This also influenced the fall of the asset.
According to Paula Zogbi, manager of Research e head of Nomad Content, more than one factor is related to the great volatility suffered by bitcoin in 2025.
The expert explains that the increases were sustained by regulations on stablecoins in the United States. In July, Trump signed a law to create the .
“Institutional investors invest more in assets that have greater regulatory predictability.”
Tech Stocks and Excess Liquidity
The correlation between bitcoin and technology companies has increased over the last few years, explains Barbosa.
Both stocks benefit from excess liquidity – the asset’s ability to be quickly converted into cash without significant loss of value. However, in the case of bitcoin, this may manifest itself earlier, explains the expert.
For people in the financial market, bitcoin can be considered an indicator of the realization movement in technology companies. THE
Due to its volatility and low liquidity in relation to the stock market, cryptoactives also suffer greater impacts than artificial intelligence shares, explains the expert.
Bitcoin could regain momentum in 2026
According to both experts, bitcoin should regain momentum and show an increase next year, although with some volatility.
For Barbosa, the appreciation of the asset should be more gradual, driven by lower interest rates in the United States, in addition to greater liquidity in the market. According to him, the asset may show signs of maturity and become less “explosive”.
Zogbi points out that bitcoin should also return to the levels seen in October 2025 or even surpass them. However, it signals greater volatility of assets, due to the midterm elections in the United States and concerns about artificial intelligence.
The factors that led to bitcoin’s rise, before the asset lost its gains, will remain in 2026, she explains. Furthermore, there is a positive projection regarding asset regulations.
“Bitcoin still moves in a way that is very correlated with technology assets, which are suffering some.”
Furthermore, although the Fed has restricted liquidity in 2025, expectations for next year are that there will be the opposite movement.
“For next year, expectations are for a more irrigated American market, with more liquidity available. Therefore, it could be a good catalyst for a positive performance of bitcoin next year.”
Investments and regulation in Brazil
Contrary to the positive global trend driven by the United States, – which should impact the exchange rate, more directly affecting those who invest in bitcoin –, explains Barbosa.
The expert states that if the current “fiscal lack of control” persists, the dollar will tend to strengthen in relation to the real. “This harms those who have a position only in reais, but helps those who have a position in bitcoins, indexed more to the dollar than to the real.”
“On the other hand, a change of government, with a clearer focus on fiscal adjustment, on cost containment, could generate appreciation of the real”, he adds.
According to Zogbi, for Brazilian investors, bitcoin can be an interesting uncorrelated asset in the market, but she also points to the risk of volatility.
“It is a very volatile asset, which must always be taken into consideration, but thinking about a domestic portfolio, it can play some role in decorrelation.”
Both experts also mentioned that the electoral period should have an influence on financial market expectations next year, which should be considered by Brazilian investors regarding bitcoin.
“The election year tends to bring more volatility to the stock market, so including the volatility of Brazil and the volatility of bitcoin has to be very well thought out”, explains Zogbi.
