If the senator (PL) maintains his campaign in 2026, he will reissue with the president (PT) that of the 2022 electoral race, say politicians and campaign strategists.
In the last presidential election, (PL) was defeated. Flávio is already trying to change the script by presenting himself as a moderate version of his father.
Published last week, the most recent one encouraged Bolsonaro supporters by showing Flávio right behind Lula in voting intentions in the first round. In the scenario with (Republicans), the center’s preferred presidential candidate, the governor of São Paulo comes out with 10%, while Flávio appears with 23%, and Lula, with 41%.
The survey, however, shows crucial data that weighs against Bolsonaro’s son: 60% of those interviewed say they would not vote for Flávio. It is the biggest rejection among all those listed —Lula has 54%, Tarcísio, 47%, , 39%, , 40%, and , 35%.
Members of the PL admit to the report that, if the rejection in the 60% range is confirmed in the next polls, it will be very difficult for the senator to become viable.
carried out from December 2nd to 4th, prior to Flávio’s announcement, it showed Lula with a 44% rejection, higher than that of the senator, who had 38%, and that of Tarcísio, with 20%.
The potential for rejection of the Bolsonaro surname is an obstacle for parties in the center to embrace Flávio in Planalto. Group leaders indicated they preferred a more palatable option, which would unite the center and the right.
For a person with experience in electoral campaigns, who spoke to the reporter under reserve, one option for Flávio to be viable is to be able to increase Lula’s rejection.
Professor of political communication at the São Paulo School of Sociology and Politics Foundation, Beto Vasques says he expects an election of rejections, decided by a difference of a few percentage points.
“Because he’s Flávio, perhaps he could even open up more space for Lula. He has the bad part of Bolsonaro and doesn’t have the good part, the popular appeal of a mass leader”, says Vasques, who has had a few electoral campaigns in his career.
For him, Flávio’s challenge is very big because, to increase Lula’s rejection, it would be necessary to attack him. By doing this, however, Jair’s son could be more rejected. Outsourcing the attacks, says the professor, would not have the same effect on the PT member’s popularity.
“Rejection will be a problem for both of them, but Lula is 10 points ahead in the second round, and Flávio has 6 points more rejection”, he says. “And Lula has a super asset which is his campaign as an incumbent, which always tends to improve approval and reduce rejection.”
Vasques states that the non-Bolsonaro opposition has a problem — without the support of the Bolsonaro surname, a candidate cannot reach the second round, but, with support, he cannot win the election. He assesses that other names would tend to do better than Flávio, as they start with lower rejection. “Tarcísio unifies the center, has TV time. Michelle brings the women. It would be a very strong ticket.”
For the professor, the election will have a plebiscitary profile and will revolve around the question: “Should Lula continue or not?”. There is, however, a counterpoint: if the right-wing candidate is more rejected than the president, even those who cannot vote for Lula.
“The wavering voter, who must decide this election, wants stability, he doesn’t like confusion. He may not even like Lula, but he saw that in the last four years the country has not ended. Now, [ele vai pensar:] Is Flávio mature? Are you going to be ‘crazy’ like your father? Do you have autonomy? The voter will make this calculation.”
Center parties and moderation strategy
President of the PP, the senator tells the Sheet There is no doubt that 2026 will have a rejection election. “Bolsonaro lost the election because he was rejected more than Lula. He didn’t attract the center. But Flávio has more potential than Bolsonaro himself.”
Asked about the maximum rejection percentage to guarantee the senator’s viability, Ciro Nogueira states that it must be lower than Lula’s. If Flávio’s rejection does not fall, he says, it is unlikely that center parties will rally around the candidacy.
Jair Bolsonaro also had to face the challenge of rejection, especially among women. To try to reverse the problem, the former first lady was contacted by the PL and began to adopt a more political stance, in a series of events in 2022.
Michelle could be an asset to Flávio’s campaign, but party politicians believe that she was upset with Jair Bolsonaro’s choice of her son — even more so because of the announcement, which the previous week with the PL criticized federal deputy André Fernandes in Ceará.
Flávio’s moderation strategy was already clear in. He stated that he thinks differently than his father on some issues and exemplified this by saying that he had taken two doses of the vaccine against Covid-19. In a post on Instagram, he said he was once in favor of the death penalty, but no longer is. “Everyone has to have the opportunity to redeem themselves.”
Enthusiastic about the senator’s candidacy, state deputy Lucas Bove (PL) was in São Paulo and argues that Lula will have even more difficulty overcoming the rejection.
“It will be a challenge for both. But, in our view, Lula has a ceiling for votes and no ceiling for rejection. It depends a lot on what he does, and he is in a very delicate situation from an economic point of view. Flávio’s rejection is very much in relation to what was falsely linked to the family name.”
For Bove, the voters of Ratinho Júnior, Zema and Caiado who say they will not vote for Flávio reject Lula even more, which would help the senator in the second round.
Flávio’s attempt to sell himself as a moderate, however, must be confronted by Lula’s campaign with speeches by the senator in a radical tone, including recent ones.
In October, in response to a post by the United States Secretary of Defense on social media, Jair Bolsonaro’s son suggested that the country had drugs in Guanabara Bay, in Rio de Janeiro. “Wouldn’t you like to spend a few months here helping us fight these terrorist organizations?” Flávio asked Pete Hegseth.
