A new counter is allegedly being prepared by , according to two intelligence services of its member countries, with the main goal of dismantling the satellites used by his company and thus limiting the supremacy that the West has begun to acquire in . The information suggests that the weapon will work by creating “clouds” of fragments, which will destroy satellites in orbit.
According to what the Associated Press reports, the agencies estimate that the so-called “zone-action” weapon would flood Starlink’s orbits with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets, putting multiple satellites out of action at the same time, but also posing a risk to other systems in orbit.
Analysts – who have not been informed of the specific findings – express serious doubts about whether such a weapon could work without causing uncontrollable chaos in space, affecting companies and states – including Russia, but also its ally China – that rely on thousands of satellites for communications, defense and other critical needs. As they note, the potential consequences, including risks to Russian systems themselves, could deter Moscow from developing or using such a weapon.
“I don’t believe it. I really don’t think so,” said Victoria Samson, a space security expert at the Secure World Foundation who leads the agency’s annual study on anti-satellite systems. “I would honestly be very impressed if they did something like that.” However, the commander of the Canadian Forces Space Command, Brigadier General Christopher Horner, stressed that such a possibility cannot be ruled out, especially in light of previous US accusations that Russia is seeking to develop an indiscriminate nuclear weapon in space.
“I can’t say I’ve been told of such a system, but it’s not unlikely,” he said. “If the reports about the nuclear system are accurate and show that they are willing to go that far, then I wouldn’t find it shocking that they were developing something a little less extreme, but just as destructive.”
In the past, Russia has called on the United Nations to take action to prevent the development of weapons in orbit, while President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow has no plans to deploy nuclear weapons in space.
Weapon that can hit multiples
According to the same information, Russia considers Starlink a particularly serious threat. The thousands of low-orbit satellites have proven critical to Ukraine’s survival in the face of a full-scale Russian invasion, now in its fourth year.
Starlink’s high-speed Internet service is used by the Ukrainian armed forces for battlefield communications, weapons targeting and other operational needs, as well as by civilians and government officials in areas where Russian strikes have disrupted communications. Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites supporting Ukrainian military operations could be considered legitimate targets. This month, Russia announced it had put into operational use a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, capable of hitting low-orbit targets.
Unlike the missile that Russia tested in 2021, destroying an inactive Cold War-era satellite, the new weapon under development could target multiple Starlink satellites at once, with pellets potentially released from formations of small satellites that have yet to be launched.
Horner noted that it’s hard to imagine how such globule clouds could be contained to only hit Starlink, adding that debris from such an attack could “get out of control very quickly.”
“If you blow up a box full of pellets,” he said, “you’ll cover an entire orbital zone and destroy every Starlink satellite and every other satellite moving in the same area. And that’s what causes huge concern.”
Probably an experimental system
The data seen by the AP did not specify when Russia might be able to develop such a system, or whether it has been tested or what stage the research is at. According to an official familiar with the findings and related information — who spoke on condition of anonymity — the program is in active development, but the timelines are too sensitive to make public.
Samson believes that the Russian research may be purely experimental. “It wouldn’t seem strange to me that some scientists would engage in something like this as a thought experiment, hoping that maybe at some point they could get their government to fund it,” he said. He added that projecting an alleged new Russian threat may also be aimed at provoking an international backlash.
“Often those who promote such ideas do so to push the US to develop something similar or to justify increased spending on anti-space defense capabilities or a tougher stance towards Russia,” he said, clarifying however that “I’m not saying that necessarily happens here, but it has happened before.”
Spheres difficult to locate
According to intelligence agencies, the pellets are extremely small — just a few millimeters — which would make them difficult to detect by ground-based or space-based tracking systems, complicating the identification of responsibility for a potential attack.
Clayton Swope, an expert on space security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, noted that if “the pellets are not detectable, that complicates the situation,” though he added that “eventually people will figure out what’s going on.”
“If the satellites start to be disabled due to damage, you can put the pieces of the puzzle together,” he said.
It is unclear how much damage such small objects could cause. In November, a Chinese spacecraft intended to return three astronauts to Earth was damaged by a possible impact of small debris.
“The biggest damage would probably be to the solar panels, which are the most vulnerable parts of a satellite,” Swope explained. “But that would be enough to put a satellite out of service.”
“Weapon of fear” and risk of chaos
After such an attack, pellets and debris would gradually descend toward Earth, endangering other orbiting systems as well. Starlink’s satellites travel at an altitude of about 550 kilometers, while China’s Tiangong space station and the International Space Station are lower — which, according to Swope, means “both would face risks.”
The chaos that such a weapon could cause might allow Moscow to threaten its adversaries without even having to use it, he noted. “It looks a lot like a weapon of fear, a deterrent.”
Samson emphasized that the serious disadvantages of a pellet gun could ultimately deter Russia. “They have invested time, money and manpower to be a space force,” he said. “Using such a weapon would effectively exclude them from Space as well. I don’t know if they would be willing to sacrifice that much.”
