The scenario of political polarization in Brazil continues to affect the majority of the population, with more voters classifying themselves as PT members than Bolsonarists, according to the most recent survey.
The survey, carried out from December 2nd to 4th, shows that 74% of the population identifies with one of the two groups — with those associated with the president’s party (PT) being slightly higher, with 40%, than those associated with the former president’s party (PL), with 34%.
Among those interviewed, 18% were neutral, 6% said they did not support any of them and 1% did not know how to answer. Datafolha interviewed 2,002 people, aged 16 or over, in 113 municipalities. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus.
At the end of July, when the previous survey was carried out, the index of Brazilians who fit the scale as PT or Bolsonarists — the variation since then in this total has occurred within the margin of error. But the two groups were technically tied, with 39% closer to Lula’s party, and 37% aligned to Bolsonaro. Although the percentages have changed within the margin of error, the distance between them no longer constitutes a tie, and the PT members are once again in the majority.
Since December 2022, Datafolha has been asking its interviewees the following question: “considering a scale from 1 to 5, where 1 is a Bolsonarist and 5 is a PT member, which number do you fit into?”
Whoever answered 1 or 2 was classified as a Bolsonarist, and whoever said 4 or 5 was included in the PT list. Those who mentioned 3 were treated as neutral. Lula’s supporters were the majority in 9 of the 11 surveys carried out so far.
The most recent survey was carried out after Bolsonaro’s arrest and conviction for an attempted coup d’état. In previous months, the former president was placed under house arrest for failing to comply with precautionary measures and, even before being sentenced to serve his sentence, he was preventively detained at the PF in Brasília after trying to open his electronic ankle bracelet.
Lula, in turn, leads polls of voting intentions for the 2026 elections.
According to Datafolha, today PTism is numerically more concentrated among women (42%), retirees (45%) and among those with education up to primary school (52%). It is also predominant in the Northeast region (49%) and among Catholics (48%).
Bolsonarism prevails numerically among men (37%), businesspeople (41%) and those who earn five to ten minimum wages (42%). It is also higher in the South region (41%) and among those interviewed who declared themselves evangelicals (47%).
Polarization was more present among those aged 60 or over, with 84% of respondents in this age group classifying themselves as PT or Bolsonarists – with 38% more inclined to support the former president, and 46%, Lula.
Datafolha also shows that identification with a political spectrum does not reach the same levels as the polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro, who faced each other in the second round of the 2022 presidential elections.
Of those interviewed, 57% said they were right or left, with 22% left and 35% right. Another 7% declared themselves as center-left, 17% as center, 11% as center-right and 8% could not say.
Among those who said they were on the left, 9% said they voted for Bolsonaro in the 2022 election. In the group identified with the right, 22% declared their vote for Lula.
Among Bolsonaro supporters who said they voted for Lula, the rate was lower, at 5%, as well as PT members who declared their vote for the former president, which was 7%.
