Hopes for the restoration of navigation in the fragile cease-fire from
The Houthis are a calculable threat despite the blows
The governments of the countries of the region as well as the shipping giants are carefully monitoring the situation in , where the Houthi rebels are still a significant threat despite the successive blows received by Israel, the US and Britain.
In this context, exploratory moves are being made to test the intentions and credibility of the pro-Iranian rebels who seem to agree to the de-escalation of the situation, possibly following the “advice” of their patrons from Tehran.
At the same time, however, cracks are growing within the internationally recognized government of Yemen and the risk of a new round of civil conflict.
The Danish company Maersk announced last Friday that one of its vessels had passed through the Red Sea and Bab El Madeb straits leading into the Gulf of Aden without incident, for the first time in almost two years.
Maersk stressed that it was a test route, while France’s CMA CGM is said to be moving in the same direction, although much of the industry is on a wait-and-see basis.
In early December, in a move of “goodwill” the Houthis released 9 Filipino sailors they had been holding since last July, following the attack on their ship in the Red Sea.
Shipping in the area has been severely curtailed since December 2023 when the Houthis began attacking Israel with missiles and drones, as well as ships they believed to be linked to Israeli interests, in a show of support for Hamas and the Palestinian people.
The rebels targeted more than 100 ships and sank four of them while killing at least nine sailors.
The Houthi blockade of one of the world’s busiest trade routes has resulted in the drastic reduction of Suez Canal crossings and the rerouting of thousands of ship routes forced to circumnavigate Africa to transport goods to Europe and the Mediterranean. The increase in freight rates and insurance premiums caused trade disruption and product price increases, while Egypt lost valuable revenue due to the canal backlog.
The developments in Yemen
Just yesterday there was a major development in Yemen’s civil war, as the internationally recognized Aden-based government and Houthi rebels agreed to a prisoner-of-war exchange. After two weeks of talks in neighboring Oman, in the presence of the UN special envoy, the exchange of around 3,000 prisoners was agreed. The Houthis announced that among the 1,200 prisoners they will release are 7 Saudis, two of them air force pilots. In return, government forces will release 1,700 Houthi prisoners.
But since the beginning of December there has been a significant reversal of the balance within the government camp of Aden. Forces from the Southern Transitional Council, which is part of the governing coalition and backed by the United Arab Emirates, initially seized
December with a lightning attack on two provinces, the oil-rich Hadramaut district on the border with Saudi Arabia, and al-Mahra district on the border with Oman.
This development puts Saudi Arabia and the UAE on a collision course, which are allies against the Houthis but support different factions in Yemen (and opposing sides in the Sudanese civil war).
Riyadh’s government demanded the withdrawal of Southern Transitional Council forces from the areas it occupied, even threatening aerial bombardment, to no avail. Instead, the Southern Transitional Council threatened to seize yet another province, bringing back scenarios of dividing or trifurcating Yemen.
The conflict between forces in the government camp undermines the legitimacy of the Aden government, empowers the Houthis, and risks a new round of civil conflict in Yemen with more involvement from Arab countries that support one side or the other.
