Allies of the former president continue to bet on the group’s flags to try to repeat in 2026 the electoral victory they obtained regionally. But the conflicts in the electoral seams so far give clues that the group may be split in the October dispute.
Two movements generated fractures in the right-wing camp in Santa Catarina, a state where Bolsonarism has strong capillarity. One of them was , a former councilor from Rio de Janeiro, in the dispute for one of the two seats on the Santa Catarina bench in the Senate.
With a place on the ticket already guaranteed to the son of the former president, the president will need to discard one of the two names mentioned so far for the dispute, federal deputy Carol de Toni (PL) or (PP), and the impasse has generated.
Allies of Toni’s Carol have complained that she is being “rifted off” by the Bolsonaro family, which has indicated that it prefers an alliance with Amin’s PP to strengthen the candidacy for re-election of the governor, Jorginho Mello (PL). The deputy has not yet decided whether to migrate to the Novo party, and insist on the Senate, or whether to remain in the PL and seek re-election in the Chamber.
In 2022, Jorginho Mello’s PL ran alone for the Executive, but over the three years in office it expanded its support base and started to design a ticket for 2026 with at least PP and MDB, acronyms that today form the first level of the state administration.
Another movement that divided the Santa Catarina right was the launch of the pre-candidacy for the state government of João Rodrigues (PSD), mayor of Chapecó. Rodrigues operates on the same political spectrum as Jorginho Mello and both are staunch supporters of Bolsonaro.
Allies of the current governor are still trying to convince Rodrigues to give up the race, including leaving the vice position on the ticket at the disposal of the PSD.
They are also betting on Jorginho Mello’s alignment with relevant PSD figures, such as the current mayor of Florianópolis, re-elected last year with the governor’s support. But, so far, Rodrigues has shown no signs of backing down.
Convicted in September for an attempted coup d’état and imprisoned since November, Bolsonaro remains influential in Santa Catarina politics and flags associated with his name are expected to be repeated in next year’s electoral campaign.
“I believe this will remain. It is a group that does not have a well-defined economic agenda, for example, but has what we call moral, conservative agendas, which is what gives them unity”, analyzes professor Julian Borba, from the Department of Sociology and Political Science at UFSC (Federal University of Santa Catarina).
Defeated in the 2022 polls, Bolsonaro achieved his fourth best vote in Santa Catarina in the second round of the dispute. He received 69.3% of the votes against (PT) — the PT member ended up elected with 50.9% of the votes across the country and should seek re-election next year.
In that election, the PL still won the largest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly (11 state deputies out of 40) and became the acronym with the most representatives in the Santa Catarina bench in the Chamber — 6 federal deputies out of 16 seats in total.
It has remained faithful to Bolsonarism until now, including frequent jabs at the federal government and the PT on its social networks.
“This ideological commitment to Bolsonarism is closely linked to spectacularization, public statements such as ‘criminals don’t come in here’. From the point of view of actions, the materiality of this ideological alignment, there is the expansion of civic-military schools and the end of racial quotas in state universities, for example”, says Borba.
It refers to one that prohibits the adoption of quotas and affirmative policies by state public institutions of higher education or by those that receive any resources from the Santa Catarina government.
The proposal is from a PL parliamentarian, Alex Brasil, and was sent to the Executive for evaluation. Jorginho Mello did not say whether he would sanction or veto, but he has repeated in interviews that “universities have no color”.
The Union’s Public Defender’s Office has already released a public note in which it maintains that the measure is an affront to fundamental principles of the Federal Constitution and “puts at risk historic advances in the recognition of the rights of black, indigenous and quilombola populations.”
In 2023, after Jair Bolsonaro’s defeat of Planalto, Santa Catarina became a kind of bastion of Bolsonarism, not only to preserve the group’s ideas, but also to shelter allies.
That year, the Jorginho Mello government appointed former members of the federal government into its administration, such as the former president of the National Library Rafael Nogueira, and also gave shelter to one of the daughters of the former first lady, Letícia Firmo.
Since then, she has held a commissioned position in Brasília linked to the Jorginho Mello government, as a cabinet assistant at the Executive Secretariat for National Articulation.
At São José City Hall, a city neighboring Florianópolis, Silvinei Vasques, who was general director of the PRF (Federal Highway Police) under Bolsonaro, served as secretary of Economic Development and Innovation. He resigned on December 16, due to his participation in the coup plot after the 2022 elections.
Son of former president Bolsonaro, Jair Renan as well. In 2023, the then newly elected senator (PL) hosted Jair Renan in his office in Balneário Camboriú.
Jair Renan later ran for councilor in the city and ended up being elected with the highest number of votes in the local Legislature, in the 2024 municipal elections.
Last year, the PL captured 90 city halls among 295 municipalities in Santa Catarina. It was the best performance in the state among all acronyms. Then there are the MDB (70 elected mayors), PP (53) and PSD (41).
