The overturned almost half of ()’s presidential vetoes analyzed since 2023. The proportion, unprecedented in two decades and higher than that of (‘s) government, reinforces the existence of a new pattern of governability in the country, with a tendency for the Executive to lose control of the agenda.
In three years, congressmen considered 87 vetoes, of which 43 were rejected. The average of 49% is above that recorded during the Bolsonaro government, but the difference is even greater in relation to the administrations of (MDB), (PT), (PSDB) and the previous administrations of Lula himself.
In addition to a context of fragmentation of the government base, the result reveals the consolidation of a new logic of coalition presidentialism. Experts say it is a reflection of institutional changes and the strengthening of Congress vis-à-vis the Executive.
The survey was carried out by Sheet based on data from the Galileu Legislative Panel, maintained by the Federal Government. The analysis considered both total and partial vetoes considered by Congress since 1999 and the year in which the subjects were opposed.
Each subject was counted only once (regardless of the number of devices). Those still in progress, which had been maintained in full or whose analysis had been compromised were discarded.
The texts were then classified by year, according to the government in force (in the case of Temer, 2016 was considered in its entirety). Finally, the vetoes analyzed and the vetoes overturned were aggregated by government to calculate the ratio.
In the FHC and Lula 1 and 2 governments, the rejection of vetoes was a one-off nature. The toucan had a veto overturned; Lula, four. Between 2000 and 2010, the aggregate index varied from 1% to 1.6%. The Planalto went through years without any rejected veto.
The pattern was maintained during Dilma’s 1st and 2nd administrations. Despite an increase in the absolute number of vetoes overturned, the percentage of those rejected did not even reach 5%. There were 7 of the 142 vetoes.
After Michel Temer, there began to be a change. Congress rejected 21 of 144 vetoes analyzed. The rate was close to 15%. The percentage rose to 44% with Bolsonaro, with 114 of the 258.
This month, Lula was already approved by the Chamber and the Senate and which provides for the reduction of sentences for Bolsonaro and others accused of the coup plot and January 8th. Congress, however, could override the PT member’s veto.
Professor Fernando Meireles, from Uerj (State University of Rio de Janeiro), says that today the veto processing process is more simplified than it was until Dilma’s first term, which reduces the cost of rejection. This is due to a change in Congress’ internal regulations.
To reject a veto, an absolute majority of votes from deputies (257) and senators (41) are required. The analysis is carried out in a joint session, which resulted in an accumulation of matters to be analyzed.
The Constitution sets a 30-day deadline for consideration, but, before a 2013 resolution, the count depended on the convening of a session. From then on, the period began to count from the registration of the veto by Congress.
Furthermore, the regulations established a fixed date for calling a session, the third Tuesday of each month, and defined that the assessment should take place regardless of the formation or report of a joint committee.
“For the Legislature, this is a common rite,” says Meireles.
In this scenario, the most relevant data is not the number of vetoes. The variation in the percentage of overturned cases, on the other hand, may indicate difficulties in dialogue and control of the legislative agenda by the Executive, says the professor.
Professor at UFPR (Federal University of Paraná), Graziella Testa states that the frequency with which vetoes have been rejected in Congress is an indication that coalition presidentialism in the format that operated 15 years ago no longer exists.
“We still have a coalition presidentialism. We have always had a Congress with a relevant role, but today we have a Congress that works in a very cohesive way and that stands before the Executive because of this cohesion”, she says.
According to the researcher, in a broader context of the relationship with the Legislature, the Planalto today has fewer tools and prerogatives to build governability.
For political scientist Rafael Silveira, professor at the IDP and at the school of government at the (Tribunal de Contas da União), there is a structural and a conjunctural component to this movement.
The first is the fact that Congress has started to analyze vetoes more systematically. This must remain. The percentage, however, may be momentary and vary depending on the political alignment between the Powers.
According to him, the future trend will depend on the electoral result. If Lula, who leads the polls for the 2026 elections, obtains a comfortable margin of votes, his bargaining power tends to increase and, as a result, the rate of vetoes overturned would fall.
In a scenario of close voting, as occurred in 2022, on the other hand, the expectation is that high percentages will be maintained, reflecting the greater tension between the Powers.
