I loved going to my grandparents’ house. As soon as I entered, I almost instinctively went to the locker, as if he was calling me by name. Then I would hunt for my grandfather’s cigarette packs and then throw them away. He never fought with me. I knew that gesture was care and concern for his health.
I also loved talking to my grandmother, sitting at the kitchen table in their house. As an almost anecdotal fact, in contrast to the fertility rate at the time, my maternal grandmother had only two daughters. The demographic transition in Brazil was consolidated in the following generations and, today, is: 1.6 children per woman, below the replacement rate of 2.1.
There are different factors that help explain why families have shrunk. In this column, I present a perspective on the effects of macroeconomics on the decline in birth rates. According to economist and Nobel laureate Claudia Goldin, in her article “The Downside of Fertility”, rapid economic growth and changes in the economy, with greater female participation, did not allow traditions to keep up with changes in economic incentives.
On the one hand, men remained more faithful to the traditions of their fathers and grandfathers; on the other, women had much more to gain by breaking them. One of the likely consequences of this mismatch was a steeper drop in birth rates.
Goldin divides a set of 12 countries into two categories. In the first group are countries such as the United States and England; in the second, Greece, Italy, South Korea, Japan and Spain.
In the first group, economic growth was more stable over time; in the second, there was a period of stagnation followed by accelerated growth. In both groups, the birth rate fell, but in the second, the drop was more pronounced. In this group, more intense growth benefited women more quickly, generating a stronger effect of reducing birth rates.
Goldin also points to another factor that may have contributed to this decline: the rise of what she calls gerontocracy, resulting from a change in the salary structure in favor of “older men”. As a consequence, young people entering the job market now have fewer opportunities.
This process may have been another element to explain the increase in the average age at which children leave their parents’ home, which, in turn, would have raised the age at marriage, reduced the proportion of married people and reduced fertility. This is a factor that is still little studied in Brazil.
Finally, I would like to mention the cowardly incident that occurred last week at . The attack that culminated in the murder of 15 people and the injury of more than 20 on Bondi beach, in Sydney, on December 14, is a direct reflection of the resurgence of anti-Semitism and intolerance.
It was the first day of , a Jewish festival known as the festival of lights. When the State and society allow this evil to progress without being combated, starting with graffiti, going through bullying directed at members of specific communities, attacks on synagogues and physical attacks, the outcome can be fatal. If there is no institutional confrontation, coordinated State action and law enforcement, the next stage is barbarism.
But when a righteous man recognizes the other’s existence, a murderer is arrested. That’s what happened on Bondi beach, when one performed a selfless act, putting his own life at risk. It was a Syrian, Muslim and foreign immigrant who stopped one of the killers and became a hero. Thank you, for your courage. As my friend Sergio Goldbaum remembered, whoever saves a life saves humanity.
May in 2026 there be more light, more tolerance and more humanity. May we be able to see ourselves in each other’s eyes. I wish you all a happy and excellent one.
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