On Christmas Day, Jair published a letter comparing his decision to try to get Flávio a presidential role.
Perhaps Jair embarked on this fantasy of greatness after Jim Caviezel, who played Jesus in “The Passion of the Christ”, was chosen to play him in the film “Dark Horse”, a kind of fascist “Cinderella from Bahia” directed by former Minister of Culture Mário Frias.
The Christmas letter may seem like old news: Jair had already announced that he would support Flávio in 2026. But the news is exactly this: nothing has changed, the center expected it to have changed, and time is passing.
Now there’s a parliamentary recess, then there’s Carnival. When Brazilian politics returns to full steam, there will be little time to exchange for . It will be well before the deadline for Tarcísio to decide whether he will leave the Government to run for President.
To make matters worse, the letter came out at the same time as the Christmas message from , in which the former first lady, a notorious admirer of Saudi jewelry and checks from Queiroz, . He seemed to be referring to his stepson Flávio, a notorious admirer of mansions bought with cash and, well, checks from Queiroz.
In other words: Flávio and Michelle will still face each other in the semifinals and, only then, will they play the final against Tarcísio. On the date scheduled for the final, Tarcísio will have to choose between a competition that is easy to win and another that is much more risky.
For this reason, many well-informed people saw the obituary of Tarcísio de Freitas’ candidacy for president in 2026 in Jair’s letter.
It’s too early to nail it. In any case, Tarcísio has good reasons for not wanting to be president in 2027.
He would be elected with the support of the market, which would expect a very tough fiscal adjustment from him. He would also be elected with the support of the centrão, which each year acquires control of a larger part of the Budget in the form of parliamentary amendments.
Its only potential ally in this fight against Congress – the same as , nowadays – would be . Any constitutional court worth its salt knows that the capture of the Budget by Congress is changing the division between Powers in Brazil in a direction very different from that predicted by the constituents.
Can Tarcísio count on the STF? His Bolsonarian voters will have voted for him trusting in the promise of a war against the Supreme Court. When he called him a “tyrant” on Avenida Paulista, Tarcísio registered the promise with a notary.
In the last three years, Lula has had enormous difficulty governing, facing opposition from the coup-right/corrupt right-wing alliance. Tarcísio, who is an intelligent guy, must have already asked himself if governing with this alliance in his favor isn’t even more difficult.
The expectation that Brazilian conservatives would end the year with a consolidated candidate for President was frustrated.
The Brazilian right is immensely more powerful than the left, even when it loses the presidential election. What is remarkable is that this immense conservative machine, created during our transition to democracy, is so difficult to direct.
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