Ministers of the (Supreme Federal Court) believe that the elections will keep the court at the center of political discussions, with the impeachment of members of the court as a campaign theme.
This assessment indicates that, for the ministers, not even the end of the case against the former president (PL) should take the court off target — which would even justify a decision to keep the court’s investigations targeting Bolsonarism open.
Estimates made by four members of the court predict that 12 politicians could win seats in the Senate by criticizing the Supreme Court as an important part of their campaigns.
Members of the court interviewed under reserve do not believe that the Bolsonarist plan to fill the Senate with enough numbers to approve requests for impeachment of ministers can succeed, but they believe that the offensive against the court will last during the electoral period.
In addition to the 2026 dispute, discussions about the creation of a code of conduct and the questions raised by the relationship between ministers and lawyers from Banco Master should affect the dynamics of the court in 2026.
The STF has been evaluating its weapons to face moments of pressure.
Last month, the minister even restricted the possibilities for impeachment requests to proceed in the Senate.
The preliminary decision — of a provisional nature — established, among other points, that the responsibility to present them would only fall to the head of the (Attorney General’s Office), currently in charge of , an ally of the magistrate.
The topic was taken up again in the Legislature, through the discussion of a bill. Gilmar ended up backing down on this point, in a negotiation that involved a proposal from the Senate to increase the quorum for the opening of these processes.
The episode added to a series of episodes in the final stretch of Congress’s work in 2025.
Most ministers support Gilmar’s position. Behind the scenes, it is estimated that the position, at least in terms of content, is even endorsed by the president of the court, .
Fachin, however, is the target of resistance when it comes to creating a code of ethics for the court.
The president understands that the creation of rules that discipline the actions of ministers can reduce pressure on the court, while some members of the court consider that these devices would leave ministers vulnerable in moments of pressure.
The STF’s performance also ends the year under questioning due to the ministers’ relations with the Master case. , to deal with the sale of the bank to BRB. Master’s owner, Daniel Vorcaro, hired Moraes’ wife’s office to act in the bank’s defense, in a contract worth R$129 million.
He has already traveled to Lima, Peru, for the Copa Libertadores final, which he attended to a Master director, days before the minister took over the role of rapporteur for the investigation into the sale to BRB.
Opposition politicians have sought to exploit moments of wear and tear on the STF. Since leaving the Presidency, Bolsonaro has expressed on several occasions his search for a majority in 2027 to face the STF.
PL members believe they can reach a bench of 22 senators, forming an alliance with other acronyms for a right-wing bench of 50 of the 81 members of the House.
In this move, the presidency of the Senate would be a demand from the party. Allies cite the senator (PL-RN) as a possible name for the position. He, who was once a minister of (MDB) and Bolsonaro, is now secretary general of the PL.
In the view of ministers, the existence of investigations that affect Bolsonarism can function as a weapon of defense against attacks by this group.
The STF has kept open investigations such as fake news and , concentrated in the office of . The fate of these investigations has been the subject of debate in court.
Their extension has been the target of criticism due to the duration considered unusual, but also due to the extension of the investigation, allowing the court to act broadly.
The closure of the processes was a request from then president Luís Roberto Barroso to Moraes. Edson Fachin, currently head of the Judiciary, has an even greater interest in the measure, as its goal is to relax relations between the Powers and contain the STF in the political scene.
Moraes has indicated the need to extend the investigations under the argument that the political scenario is likely to be turbulent next year, even with the end of the coup and the arrest of the leaders of the coup plot.
The assessment of Supreme Court ministers on the need to maintain investigations targeting Bolsonarists has undergone changes over time.
In an interview with Sheet in August 2024, for example, Barroso even stated about the fake news inquiry. A few months after this statement, he was “delaying because the facts have multiplied over time.”
The 2026 elections will be led by , who is expected to assume the presidency of the (Superior Electoral Court) in August, with the departure of the court.
As much as members of the Supreme Court assess that the minister will not make relevant concessions for Bolsonarism, it is believed that the commitment to combat disinformation, for example, will be different from Moraes’ actions.
It is even expected that pre-campaign rules and digital platforms will be relaxed.
Opened in 2021 after a dribble to the PGR, it grew over time and, through it, advanced to the investigation of the 2022 coup plot, the sale of and.
