ZAP // DedMityay, Olesha / Depositphotos
The late American statesman Henry Kissinger’s prophetic warning about the possibility of Tokyo becoming a nuclear power by 2028 is being closely reevaluated by Beijing.
One of the last predictions before his death was that Japan would try to develop nuclear weapons — a prediction “dark” and “worrying”says , a perception that is not unrelated to the fact that relations between China and Japan have had in recent weeks.
In a 2023 interview with the magazine, Kissinger warned that Japan “was on its way to becoming a nuclear power within five years”.
Chinese nuclear experts cited by SCMP estimate that Japan not only has the political motivation, as well as the ability technique for developing nuclear weapons in less than three yearssupporting Kissinger’s warning that Japan harbors ambitions of recovering its pre-war military status, when favorable conditions arise.
Last month, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichithat of Japan, referred to the red line of three non-nuclear principles of the country, seeking to open a legal loophole, recalls the Hong Kong-based newspaper.
Last week, SCMP adds, a senior official in the Japanese Prime Minister’s office, tasked with advising Takaichi on security policy, said that, given the increasingly harsh security environment, he believed that “Japan should have nuclear weapons”.
However, the government’s chief secretary, Minoru Kiharareaffirmed on December 18 the country’s decades-long commitment to never possess nuclear weapons, stressing that Japanese nuclear policy has not changed.
Despite this, most experts consider that Japan is in a state of “nuclear latency” – that is, although it does not currently possess nuclear weapons, it could quickly overcome this barrier and produce usable nuclear weapons.
“The principles of nuclear weapons can be understood even by high school students. Countries like North Korea, India and Pakistan managed to develop them,” said a nuclear scientist from western China.
“Technically, Japan has sufficient industrial capacity to build nuclear weapons even more advanced than these countries, in a short time. Furthermore, Japan has accumulated enough nuclear fuel under the pretext of it being for civilian purposes,” the scientist adds.
According to the same expert, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic, there is even speculation that Japan may already have two nuclear bombs. “If they dare to advance, that number can increase to three or four“.
However, says the expert, “the price Japan would pay for developing nuclear weapons would be much greater than that of North Korea, India or Pakistan, because Japan is a defeated nation”,
A Beijing-based nuclear expert highlighted the essential difference between nuclear weapons and nuclear energy: While energy depends on a controlled reaction, weapons involve an uncontrolled reaction.
“Japan has enough nuclear material, such as plutoniumto build a weapon, and probably also has the technology to enrich uranium – although the US approval could be a factor”, he said.
Japan has relevant technical reserves in terms of raw materials, manufacturing technology and launch methods. It is also the only country not world with a complete nuclear fuel cycle without possessing nuclear weapons.
According to data released by the Japan Atomic Energy Commission in August, the country has about 44 tons of plutoniumof which 8.6 tonnes were stored nationally and 35.8 tonnes in the United Kingdom and France.
Although this plutonium not military gradeJapan has sophisticated refining capabilities, highlights the SCMP. Considering that only about 8 kg of plutonium are needed to make a nuclear bomb, national reserves would be more than enough.
Due to geographic limitations of its territoryJapan cannot conduct explosive tests in remote desert areas, as China and the US have done. However, the modern development of nuclear weapons can be done using “test” methods.more advanced and discreet.
Japan also has remarkable computational resources. Your Fugaku supercomputer is among the most powerful in the world, and could be used to carry out simulated explosion tests.
A nuclear warhead also requires a launch pad. The Epsilon rocket from JAXA, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, was designed as a solid fuel rocketallowing faster response times compared to liquid fuel rockets that require pre-fuelling – typical characteristics of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
JAXA’s new Epsilon-S model can carry a 1.2-ton payload to low Earth orbit. If a satellite was replaced by a nuclear warheadand the guidance systems were adapted, it could be used for long-range nuclear attacks, says the SCMP.
Japan is still improving its Type 12 cruise missileequipped with a combined GPS navigation, terrain matching and terminal active radar system. An updated version will have a range of about 1,000 km.
Until now, being only country victim of nuclear attacksJapan is a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, but never subscribed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, the multilateral agreement that aims to completely ban these weapons.
As diplomatic relations between Japan and China worsened after in early November the Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, said that the Japanese armed forces could become involved if China took action against Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of its territory.
Since then, China and cultural events and exchanges between local governments have been cancelled, and the environment between the two countries has remained tense.
From reading the SCMP text, it seems possible to draw two conclusions: that Japan will be able easily become a nuclear power — and that China is very attentive, and quite concerned about this possibility.
