Voters are heading to the polls in early , hoping to end the political stalemate that has kept it at a standstill for much of the year.
The snap election was decided after Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s ruling party, Vetëvendosje (Self-Determination), failed to form a government despite coming out on top in the February 9 election.
This condition of political deadlock is the first time Kosovo has been concerned since it declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, following the 1998-99 war and NATO intervention.
Kurti’s party remains the favorite, but independence is not certain
The prime minister’s party remains the favorite in this contest as well, but it is not clear whether it will manage to secure a parliamentary majority in the 120-member parliament, as the other major parties have refused to cooperate with him. According to Kosovo’s electoral law, 20 seats are automatically allocated to representatives of the Serb minority and other ethnic groups.
Another inconclusive election process would further deepen the crisis. Kosovo has yet to approve next year’s budget, raising fears of a negative impact on the already fragile economy of the country of around two million people.
At the same time, in March the parliament is called to elect a new president, as the term of Viosa Osmani expires at the beginning of April. If they fail to elect a president, the Constitution provides for new early elections.
The main opposition parties are the Democratic Union of Kosovo and the Democratic Party of Kosovo. They have accused Kurti of authoritarianism and alienating Kosovo’s allies in the United States and the European Union since he took office in 2021.
How did we get here?
The 50-year-old Kurti, who was a political figure in the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), has taken a tough line in negotiations with Belgrade to normalize relations with Serbia, which are being mediated by the European Union. In response, the EU and the US have imposed sanctions. He has pledged to proceed with the purchase of military equipment to strengthen security.
No reliable pre-election polls have been published. In the previous elections, Vetëvendosje had collected about 42% of the vote, while the two main rival parties together about 40%. Analysts estimate that even small changes in percentages may prove decisive for the future distribution of power, but nothing is taken for granted.
Tensions with the Serb population in the north peaked in 2023, when clashes broke out in which dozens of NATO peacekeepers were injured. In a positive development, Serbian mayors took office peacefully this month, following municipal elections in the region.
Kurti has also agreed to take in immigrants from third countries being deported from the United States as part of the Trump administration’s tough immigration crackdown. So far, one migrant has arrived, according to authorities.
Kosovo is among the poorest economies in Europe. It is one of six countries in the western Balkans that are seeking long-term membership of the European Union, but for this to happen Kosovo and Serbia will have to normalize their relations.
