The next presidential election, which will take place in 2026, promises to bring a new configuration to the national political scene, with the possibility of a repeat of the polarization seen in 2022, but with new protagonists. During the special program “Perspectives 2026” from CNN Brasilanchors Thais Herédia, Tainá Falcão and Elisa Veeck discussed the possible developments and strategies of the main political actors for the dispute.
One of the most highlighted points in the debate was the senator’s rise as a potential right-wing candidate to face Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). As pointed out during the discussion, recent surveys show Flávio performing better than the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans)which until then was considered the most likely name to represent the conservative camp.
Tarcísio and the dilemma between São Paulo and the presidency
Thais Herédia presented an analysis of the strategic position of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). According to her, the current São Paulo governor has a practically guaranteed re-election in São Paulo, where he maintains high approval and low rejection. “It’s very difficult to beat Tarcísio, who here in São Paulo has high approval, low rejection and is heading smoothly towards re-election”, commented Herédia when analyzing a possible scenario of a dispute between Tarcísio and Fernando Haddad by the São Paulo government.
The expert also pointed out that for strategic reasons: “Let the PT win and clean up its own mess, then you will have São Paulo’s re-election guaranteed.” Furthermore, it was highlighted that assuming the presidency in 2026 would mean facing a period of necessary fiscal austerity, which could politically exhaust any new ruler.
Polarization and electoral strategies
Tainá Falcão highlighted that the 2026 election tends to be a repeat of the polarization seen in 2022. “If Flávio Bolsonaro is indeed the candidate, it will be Bolsonaro versus Lula for both camps”, he stated, highlighting that there is a certain “comfort” in this dispute because “”.
An important aspect highlighted during the discussion was the impact of this polarization on elections for state governments and the Senate. According to experts, candidates for these positions will have to position themselves clearly on one side of the polarization, since “staying in the middle, in a majority election, is a risk.” It was pointed out that, although there is a lot of talk about voters’ desire for centrist candidates, they still show a preference for more defined positions than left or to right.
For the Legislature, the trend of significant renewal in the Chamber of Deputies was mentioned, with estimates of around 50% of new parliamentarians. However, it was highlighted that this renewal does not necessarily mean a change in the political spectrum, and there may only be a replacement of names within the same ideological fields.
