About the Gaza ruinstragedy takes different forms. The large-scale bombings that devastated the enclave and more than 70,000 Palestinian lives They have disappeared to give way to the brutality of winter. The reality of the ceasefire brings new, slower, but equally heartbreaking ways of dying. In recent days, makeshift tents have been flooded, Babies and children have perished from the coldand buildings hit by Israeli bombs have collapsed on those who took refuge within their battered walls. In incessant agony, the population of Gaza desperately waits for what the leaders are proclaiming in press conferences to materialize and for the second phase of the truce comes into effect. But, two and a half months after the start of the ceasefire, it seems to never come.
For the moment, all hopes are pinned on Mar-a-Lago, the luxurious property of the president of the United States in Florida. There, Donald Trump and the Prime Minister of Israel will meet this Monday, Benjamin Netanyahu, on a trip that is expected to last a week. “This visit takes place in a context of tensions between Netanyahu and Trump over what Israel is doing in Syria and in Gaza,” he notes. Ghaith Al-Omariresearcher at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Meanwhile, in Gaza, the situation is desperate, with almost daily attacks by the Israeli Army and an environmental catastrophe on people who have lost everything.
“In Hamas nor the government of israel they want the second phase, because this second stage imposes very strict demands both sides, some very difficult politically,” says Al-Omari. According to Trump’s plan, with the end of the first phase, Israel would have to further withdraw its troops from Gaza while establishing a transitional authority and deploying a international stabilization force (FEI). In turn, Hamas would have to disarm and the long-awaited reconstruction of the enclave reduced to rubble. “The second problem is practicalbecause what is requested in the second phase, even with the will of both parties, is not simple, like disarmament or reconstruction,” he tells this newspaper.
“With no one in charge”
Both Trump and Netanyahu have declared that the start of the second phase will be “coming soon” without giving more details. “Another problem that is stalling its start is the fact that the international community and the region want to participate in it, but they also want clarity regarding their participation, and each potential participant has different interests,” says Al-Omari. The euphoria experienced in Sharm el Sheikh By mid-October it appears to have dissipated. “Today no one is in charge of the second phase, neither in the United States, nor internationally, given that the Peace Board nor the executive body; it’s a bureaucratic problem But it is very important because, without anyone in charge, things become blurred,” adds the researcher.
While talks stall and negotiations become a game of statements and leaks with no real impact on the ground, Gaza continues to languish. At least 391 Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli Army since the beginning of the ceasefire in October. Almost daily, both sides accuse each other of committing truce violations. On the one hand, the troops maintain the control of more than half of the Stripand, contrary to what was agreed, the Israeli authorities have allowed the opening of the international crossing of Rafah only for the departure of Gazans, and not for their return. On the other hand, Hamas has largely reestablished itself in the rest of the territory. “The lack of clarity is precisely the problem, because what we are seeing right now is that, with all this fighting behind the scenes and all this politics, the reality on the ground is being configured in a certain way,” says Al-Omari.
Divided in two
“He empty What we saw after the ceasefire was what allowed, and continues to allow, Hamas consolidate on the groundand, as long as we do not make a decision and we do not have someone in charge, the vacuum will continue, Hamas will continue to consolidate, and, as a result, Israel will continue and intensify its security measures,” he points out, referring to the constant Israeli attacks. Currently, the Gaza Strip is divided by the Yellow Linedescribed as a “new frontier for Israel” by the top commander of the Israeli Army, Eyal Zamir. This would be a clear violation of the Trump agreement, which stipulated that “Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza”. Tel Aviv controls almost the 58% of a territory without Gazans. There, it is precisely where the American president wants reconstruction to begin as a strategy to attract the Palestinian population who now live under the control of Hamas.
But this proposal raises several problems. First of all, there are no volunteers to finance this reconstruction. Qatar He has already declared that he is not willing to pay for it again without the guarantee that Israel will not destroy Gaza again. European countries and United Arab Emirates They have gone further by defending that they will not open their wallets until Hamas disarms, just as Washington and Tel Aviv claim. “Furthermore, this idea of reconstruction is absurd, and demonstrates a lack of understanding of the functioning of Gazan society thinking that by building these beautiful gated communities, people will flock to them; It is a sign that the nature of social relations in Gaza is not understood, as a clan society, which does not want to live under Israeli control“says Al-Omari.
Peacekeeping and non-enforcement of peace
“Nor will Arab countries build under Israeli control, because no Arab country will want to be considered a financier of Israel; “These are indicators that there is no real planning underway right now for the second phase,” he adds. Another of the big obstacles is the international stabilization force that, according to Trump, will be deployed in Gaza at the end of January. For now, no country has confirmed its participation. “There is no clear mandate for force, which means that no country will blindly volunteer,” says Al-Omari. Netanyahu wants foreign troops to do the job his soldiers have failed to do and disarm Hamas. “Not only are they worried about the possibility of entering into a armed conflict with the Palestinian groupbut also how this could affect the relations with Israel“, he notes.
After the King Abdullah of Jordan said that they preferred a peacekeeping mission, and not one of peace enforcement, countries like Indonesia o Azerbaijanconsidered as initial candidates to join the FIE, joined this position. At the moment, it is also not clear who will join the Peace Boardwhich will oversee the management of Gaza after the war. The middle The Times of Israel said this Thursday that the United States is telling its interlocutors that it has achieved commitments to Egypt, Qatar, Emirates, United Kingdom, Italy and Germany for its leaders to join Trump in the council, but nothing is confirmed. “There is a lot distrust between the different actors: Israel distrusts the Arab countries, and the Arab countries do not trust the Israelis, and, by not knowing their intentions, this becomes a crisis,” Al-Omari points out.
Furthermore, sources from the field report that Every day the Yellow Line movestaking more Gazan territory under Israeli control. Change is urgent, but no one seems to be in a hurry. “If there is not international attention In the implementation of phase two, what we see today in Gaza is what we will see in the near future, that is, the ceasefire will hold, but we will have a low intensity conflictand how the lines move from one side to the other,” Al-Omari concludes.
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