The heavens opened to her on Christmas Eve but the president’s wish for his annihilation by Divine Providence was not fulfilled. Instead, that night and the following, steel rained down on Odessa and other cities hit by Russian missiles and drones, while negotiations intensified for a ceasefire that may bear fruit in the coming days. “We don’t lose a single day. We agreed on a meeting at the highest level – with the US president in the near future. A lot can be decided before the New Year” said Friday Zelenskiy, who is expected this Sunday in Florida, at the resort of Mar-a-Lago.
Relentless pounding
The metaphysical expectations of Kiev were refuted by the developments on the front and in the negotiation. The Russians are pounding the country’s infrastructure as they tighten their grip on eastern Ukrainian strongholds, mainly in the Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions, trying to grab more ground to put themselves in the best possible position ahead of a ceasefire deal. The escalation of the Russian attack in combination with the American pressures explains to a certain extent the retreat of President Zelensky on the territory with the eventual acceptance of the creation of a demilitarized zone (Demilitarized Zone – DMZ) or a “free economic zone” in territories not occupied by the Russian army, perhaps also in part of occupied territories from which the Russians will have to withdraw.
The demilitarized zone
Zelensky first referred to the demilitarized zone when he presented, on Christmas Eve, the 20-point plan he had reached with the Americans, who undertook to take it to Moscow. Just the day before, on December 23, the Ukrainian army had confirmed its withdrawal from the strategically important city of Siversk, in Northeast Donetsk, at a time when the Russian army was escalating its offensive to capture the city of Liman. Further south, Russian forces reached the outskirts of Konstantinovka, encircled Mirnokhrad from three directions, and gained ground in the Zaporizhia region.
On Christmas Day, the Ukrainians hit a refinery inside Russian territory, in the Rostov region, with British Storm Shadow missiles.
The 20-point plan is more favorable to the Ukrainians than the previous 28-point plan, which was US-Russian inspired and amounted to a humiliating capitulation of Kiev. It provides, among other things, security guarantees in Ukraine “based” on the collective defense clause of NATO Article 5, limitation of Ukrainian forces to 800,000 troops, non-nuclear power status for Ukraine, creation of funds for the reconstruction of up to 800 billion dollars. Elections are expected to be held “soon” after the signing of the agreement, the implementation of which will be monitored by a Peace Council chaired by the US president. Special mention is made of Ukraine joining the EU at a later stage (Kiev insists that a date should be set, which is extremely difficult as a multi-stage accession process is required).
Security guarantees
The 20-point text is accompanied by three documents that are also being worked on: a tripartite security guarantee agreement (Ukraine, US and Europe), a separate, bilateral security guarantee agreement with the US, as well as a “prosperity road map” for Ukraine’s development until 2040. Zelensky stressed that the new version of the plan does not require Ukraine to formally abandon the prospect of joining NATO, as Moscow deserved. If Russia accepts not to revise the relevant provision of the Ukrainian Constitution, it will be left to the current refusal/assurance of the US and other member countries that they do not intend to approve Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Alliance. However, there are several unclear points that should be clarified in the near future.
The creation of a demilitarized zone along the current front line will likely mean the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from some areas it defended with great sacrifice against the Russian invaders. The historical precedents of such zones marked a freeze of conflicts and a fait accompli as in most cases they did not lead to solutions. Characteristic are the precedents of Korea (since 1953), where the North and the South technically remain in a state of war, the Golan Heights (since 1973), which has been circumvented by Israel by annexing the area and recently with a new invasion, the Green Line in Cyprus (since 1974), where Turkish provocations are frequent, the Sinai Peninsula (since 1979) with four zones of controlled Egyptian and Israeli military presence that withstood the Gaza War.
The nuclear power plant of Saporizia
Territorial will probably be the most decisive issue that Zelensky and Trump will discuss. The scope of the demilitarized zone, the terms of its supervision as well as the economic exploitation of the area are the most important parameters, together with that concerning the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. The nuclear plant, which has six reactors and is the largest in Europe, has been in Russian hands since 2022. The American side claimed a stake by proposing to control and operate the nuclear plant jointly, i.e. by Ukraine, the US and Russia. After Kiev’s refusal, Washington came back with a “compromise proposal” that provides for control of the factory by an American-Ukrainian joint venture. According to the New York Times, the dissolution of the joint venture would allow the Americans to do whatever they want with their share, including a separate deal with Russia.
On Christmas Day, the Russian Foreign Ministry spoke of “slow but steady progress” while claiming that Western European countries are attempting to derail the negotiation. It is very likely that when Trump welcomes Zelensky to his Florida mansion today, he will have received answers from the Russians on the 20-point plan and will present the Ukrainian president with a new ultimatum.
