Arrested for an attempted coup d’état, () reaches the election year maintaining the leadership of the right in his surname. Isolated in a Federal Police room in Brasília, the former president, who has a series of health problems, transfers his political capital to his eldest son, the senator (PL-RJ), announcing him as a candidate for the Planalto in 2026. Bolsonaro prematurely exhausts his electoral strategies, banishing the betrayal that has always tormented him.
“Bolsonaro heated up militancy when he nominated Flávio for president”, says federal deputy Bia Kicis (PL-DF), supporter of the former president in the Chamber. “Flávio’s name caused surprise, because no one expected it at that moment. People said that a family member would be the vice president. It gave a huge boost to the militancy.” In fact, . Since then, this news has been interpreted with suspicion by those who were betting on Flávio’s withdrawal — the candidacy would only be to regain political relevance after the prison episode — or with seriousness.
After all, the most recent Quaest survey shows the senator, with 23% of voting intentions, ahead of the governor of , (Republicanos-SP), who has 10%, against President Luiz Inácio da Silva (PT), totaling 41%. In Kicis’s view, the strengthening of Flávio’s candidacy is explained by his always being in the media, in meetings with businesspeople and representing Bolsonarist ideas. “It shows that the dispute for 2026 will go down two paths, one for prosperity and public security and the other for chaos”, says the deputy.
In parallel, Bolsonaro has a series of health problems. On Christmas Eve, . At the same time, he continues to have bouts of hiccups, as a result of the different intestinal surgeries he underwent due to the stabbing episode, in the 2018 elections. While the former president is serving a 27-year sentence, another person from his family, in addition to Flávio, is mobilizing militancy: the president of PL Mulher, . Popular in the evangelical segment, the former first lady is tipped for the Bolsonaro ticket. She, however, was not nominated until now by her husband. Kicis says that Michelle never positioned herself as a presidential candidate and should run for the Senate.
The situation is completed, finally, with the list of governors who postulate a presidential mandate, their favorite, Tarcísio. With Flávio in the election, the candidacy would be center-right, a third way. Professor of political science at Uerj (State University of Rio de Janeiro), Paulo Henrique Cassimiro says that, by nominating his son Zero Um, Bolsonaro empties other names and shows that he does not want to lose power, even in the case of defeat to Lula. This, according to Cassimiro, is a last resort for the former president, preventing an ally from stealing his leadership.
“Bolsonaro’s mobilization on the streets has decreased considerably, but he has electoral capital. The name Bolsonaro will have weight in the election, even if he no longer has control of the right-wing agenda”, he says. Also a professor of political science, Leonardo Belinelli, from UFRRJ (Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro), states that, so far, conditions have not been favorable for the former president to capitalize politically on his arrest. In this context, he runs the risk of losing the virile image that he worked so hard to build. Belinelli admits, however, that his strategy of announcing Flávio for the elections has been successful in the current political moment.
Opting out Michelle, according to the professor, has to do with one of the bases of the Bolsonaro project: the preference for blood ties. “Michelle really managed to build her own path, relatively unrelated to Bolsonaro. The work she does with PL Mulher, in dialogue with evangelicals, signaled an internal differentiation in this political group”, says Belinelli.
