Employment data released this Tuesday (30) showed different readings for Brazil.
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Market data usually comes out every few days, and often shows different results.
The research carried out by IBGE is much broader and provides information related to informal employment, which Caged cannot reach, as it only refers to records of formal employment sent by companies.
Economists heard by CNN Money analyze the current situation in the Brazilian job market and the effects that improve the unemployment rate figures, while the generation of formal vacancies falls.
Mauricio Nakahodo, economics professor at ESEG, points to a slowdown in the creation of formal jobs, which, according to him, “reflects the interest rate movement at a restrictive level”.
“Although this data was lower than a few months ago, it is still normal at a time of low unemployment rates”, he adds.
The professor highlights that another factor that contributes to the low unemployment rate is the growth of other types of work in addition to formal ones, such as Legal Entity model contracts, app drivers and delivery drivers, for example.
Fiscal policy and interest resistance
Unemployment seen by IBGE at historic lows also reflects an increase in mass income and a drop in informality in the country, say economists, in a combination of seasonal effects and the adoption of public policies with tax incentives.
“We realized that despite the high interest rate, the economy is more structured, resilient and resistant to monetary policy. This is largely explained by fiscal policy, which has been supporting the increase in the level of activity and occupation”, explains Cristina Helena Pinto, professor of economics at PUC-SP.
In the same vein, Juliana Inhasz, economics professor at Insper, highlights that public policy stimuli support both the .
For her, the combination of factors is the main pillar capable of sustaining the sequence of record low unemployment. This is because the reduction in the share of the unemployed population boosts the demand for services and other activities that employ labor, such as commerce and services.
“Household consumption is buoyant, still resilient. We have noticed less pronounced expansions, due to the effects of monetary policy, but activity still remains quite resilient”, he explains.
The numbers represent an expansion cycle: the drop in unemployment occurs in a scenario of greater economic growth.
The population has a larger wage bill, which provides greater purchasing power, encourages different sectors of the economy and — in a return to the beginning of the cycle — generates even more jobs.
Seasonal effect
For Renan Pieri, economics professor at FGV, this cycle intensifies even more now: at the end of the year.
“The second half of the year is very positive for the economy. There are major retail dates, such as Black Friday and Christmas, so this also contributes to this new historic low”, he states.
Helena Pinto, economics professor at PUC-SP, agrees that seasonality has a direct effect on these numbers.
“There is an increase in the level of activity that may also be linked to the increase in expectations for this end of the year, which led to an increase in the level of hiring.”
Repercussion on the Plateau
On social media, President Lula celebrated the result. In a post on X — the old Twitter — he stated that “while 2025 isn’t over, we continue to break records.”
And he highlighted that he hopes that next year will be “one of even more prosperity and opportunities for the Brazilian people.”
