China announced that it will impose country-specific quotas on beef imports with an additional tariff of 55% applied to volumes exceeding the quantity
The Brazilian Association of Meat Packers (Abrafrigo) estimates that the adoption of safeguard measures by China on the import of beef could cause a loss of up to US$3 billion in revenue for Brazil in 2026, with the application of an additional tariff of 55% for volumes that exceed the quantity. The measures come into force tomorrow (1st) and will last until December 31, 2028 and will affect the volume of Brazilian exports in the coming years.
“Abrafrigo expresses deep concern with the announcement of the application of safeguards to the import of beef by China, a measure that represents a material and immediate risk to the performance of Brazilian exports and the balance of the national production chain”, stated the entity, in a note.
Brazil, the main supplier of red protein to the Chinese market, will have an export quota of 1.106 million tons without additional tariffs in 2026. The volume will reach 1.128 million tons in 2027 and 1.154 million tons in 2028, an increase of 2% year on year.
“Excess volumes will suffer an additional tariff of 55%, which should make exports outside the established ceiling unfeasible. The potential impact of this measure could mean a loss of up to US$3 billion in revenue for Brazil in 2026, compromising the performance of the sector’s exports, which should exceed US$18 billion in 2025”, Abrafrigo projected.
The entity highlighted that Brazil should exceed 1.6 million tons sent to the Chinese market this year, responsible for 55% of fresh beef exports. The sector’s revenue from exports to China is expected to reach approximately US$9 billion this year.
“The participation of the Asian country, which had already shown significant growth – going from US$5.424 billion in revenue until November 2024 to US$8.029 billion in 2025 (+48%) and from 1,212,721 to 1,499,508 tons (+23.6%), consolidates it as our largest and most strategic buyer, representing 48.6% of total revenue and 42.7% of total volume exported this year”, highlighted Abrafrigo.
For the association, in addition to the direct effect on the Brazilian trade balance, the measure could be a discouraging factor for the expansion of national production by livestock farmers. “The effects can extend throughout the production chain, with impacts on income generation, employment and investments in the countryside”, argued the entity.
Finally, Abrafrigo argued that “firm and coordinated diplomatic action from the Brazilian government is urgent and essential, with a focus on expanding new markets” to mitigate the commercial impacts of Chinese safeguards. “The Brazilian production sector remains committed to the quality, regularity and competitiveness of national beef, and expects that joint institutional efforts will ensure the maintenance of Brazil’s leading role in global trade in the sector”, concluded Abrafrigo.
*With information from Estadão Conteúdo
