the United States and the United States agree that an agreement to end the nearly four-year war is close. As the US president said, there remain “one or two very difficult, very painful issues” that will determine the final outcome of the negotiations.
According to reports, two of the thorniest points of Washington’s 20-point plan concern the territorial regime in eastern Ukraine and the fate of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which is under Russian control from 2022.
The Kremlin shares the assessment that the talks are “at the final stage”, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to meet European leaders in France on January 6. However, any engagement on the critical issues could upset the fragile framework agreement.
Donbas in focus
Russian President Vladimir Putin insists on full integration of the Donbass industrial region, despite offers of compromise from Kiev. Russian forces control almost all of the Lugansk region and over 75% of Donetsk, but Moscow also claims the remaining key cities such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Zelensky has rejected the possibility of a complete withdrawal, stressing that it is both a legal and a humanitarian issue, as hundreds of thousands of citizens live in these areas. He has proposed the creation of a demilitarized or free economic zone under international control, a proposal considered difficult to accept by the Russian side.
Analysts estimate that, even at the current rate of advance, it would take Russian forces until 2027 to fully capture Donetsk, leaving room for political compromise, though nothing is taken for granted.
Zaporizhia nuclear power plant
Particular importance is also attached to the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, which remains inactive and depends on external power for safety reasons. Ukraine is calling for the demilitarization of the region and its transformation into a special economic zone, while, according to Zelensky, the US has proposed a joint management model.
Moscow, however, insists that only Russia can guarantee the safe operation of the station, leaving limited room for flexibility. Although a technical compromise is not ruled out, this presupposes a level of trust that is currently absent.
Lack of trust and additional barriers
Deep mistrust between the two sides undermines any progress. Zelensky has openly said he does not trust Putin about his intentions for a lasting peace, while Russia accuses Ukraine of acts of aggression, claims Kiev rejects.
The open issues also include security guarantees requested by Ukraine, the future presence of foreign troops, the cost of reconstruction – estimated at around $800 billion – and the freezing of Russian assets in Europe.
Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the European Union also remains a point of friction, although it is seen as a long-term prospect.
The possibility of a referendum
Finally, Zelensky has left it open for the approval of any agreement, citing popular will for peace but also rejecting territorial concessions. The Kremlin opposes a temporary truce to hold a vote, saying it would prolong the conflict.
With time running out, the remaining “hard issues” will determine whether the negotiations lead to a historic deal or new deadlocks.
