What to expect in 2026: Folha editors make predictions – 12/31/2025 – Politics

With , and growing turmoil, the year 2026 should be even more newsworthy than 2025. Editors at Sheet they comment on what should govern the news in the next 12 months, not only in politics and the economy, but also in behavior and culture.

(Policy)

Lula, but with the shadows of (toughest rival, if he runs), (the union is not yet stable) and (the campaign will not forget the PT member’s 80th birthday). The launch of does not end the fight over Bolsonaro’s estate, and the back and forth over Tarcísio SP or BR will continue until April, at the deadline.

After the soldering iron on the ankle bracelet that Alexandre de Moraes equipped, he hopes to serve his sentence at home. It loses influence, but the Bolsonarist agenda maintains a leading role with security and the election to the Senate, with an eye on the impeachment of STF ministers. The chance is as low as that of the three Powers coming into permanent harmony and congressmen giving up billionaires.

(Economy)

Economic agents await the beginning of a cycle of cuts in the basic rate, currently at its highest level since 2006, 15%. Members of the financial market hope that , but the Copom is still . Furthermore, there is doubt as to whether a potential could delay or weaken the cuts.

The year should also test the euphoria surrounding companies linked to , the driving force behind US stock markets in recent years. The test will be the ability of companies to show that their high investments and debts will bring returns to investors. The concern is justified: technology companies currently have enormous weight and could bring down the market as a whole.

(Artificial intelligence)

Making predictions about generative artificial intelligence in 2026, when it is already everywhere, is like trying to choose a movie on streaming: there are too many options and everything seems interesting. The bet, therefore, goes to a spoiler given in 2025, the . The trend should become more sophisticated and popular by allowing AIs to generate functional codes from natural language commands. With this, people without technical knowledge can create apps, presentations and digital products using basic instructions.

In an election year, algorithms, which already help feed and perpetuate polarized bubbles, must work on a 7×7 scale, systematically testing individual autonomy and critical thinking capacity. At this rate, it will be necessary to redouble attention to deepfakes and synthetic videos.

Juliano Machado (World)

From Latin America to the Middle East, passing through Europe, decisions must guide 2026. Will you invade Venezuela to overthrow it? Will you engage again to resolve the issue (which, by the way, will go to the polls and could remove Netanyahu from power)? Will you be able to seal peace between? In the region, Colombia and Peru vote for president, with likely interference from the White House in all disputes. Trump will still face the internal challenge of the mid-term legislative elections, in which maintaining control of Congress will be crucial. There is a lot at stake for the Republican at home and abroad.

(Daily life and Sport)

should be the main issue in the elections, with candidates trying to present themselves as hardliners. Meanwhile, while authorities look for ways to target these groups. The year should be marked by a final decision by Aneel on the situation in São Paulo after the sequence of blackouts. We will enter 2026 with our eyes on the clouds. A persistent drought, with the risk of water shortages.

Furthermore, the entry into force of the call promises a revolution in the use of social networks by children. Implementation of distance learning limitations in higher education courses should cause a reorganization in the Brazilian university scenario.

In sports, the biggest World Cup in history will be a test of the global power of FIFA and the . The Brazilian team and will have the challenge of overcoming suspicions throughout the tournament, marked by the farewells of and .

(Health and Balance)

The patent for , the active ingredient in the medicines Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus, is expected to fall in Brazil in March, despite the efforts of manufacturer Novo Nordisk to extend the deadline — the registration was made in 2006 at the National Institute of Industrial Property (INPI), but only granted in 2019. Therefore, after the first quarter, other pharmaceutical companies, with the approval of Anvisa (National Health Surveillance Agency), will be able to produce and sell making the treatment for diabetes and obesity more accessible to the population.

(Environment)

Yes, 2026 should follow the same fate as recent years and join the ranks of those on Earth. Amid heat waves and other extreme weather events, the year promises to be one of discussions on how to end the use of —Brazil, Colombia and other countries will meet in April to formulate a proposal, a promise made at .

(Science)
This year, we will likely see Starship, the 123-meter megarocket, reach a new milestone in its development: the recovery of the second stage, with this part of the vehicle (the spacecraft) returning to Earth and landing intact. So far, in the 11 flights carried out since 2023, SpaceX has already, when this part of the vehicle (the propellant) returns to the launch platform and a type of clamp holds it. Starship’s advancement matters, since , in .

(Illustrated)

The year is already starting off hot, with a Golden Globe nominee and in full campaign for . has everything it takes to repeat last year’s feat and take the acting award at this first ceremony of the year. The film will face tough rivals, including Iranian Jafar Panahi and Danish Joachim Trier.

In , expect a decline in songs in English, just as the power of foreign cinema already demonstrates, and the rise of stars such as American and Spanish . In the visual arts, a mourning edition in May dominates the calendar — the exhibition led by the Cameroonian, who died a year ago, , something unprecedented in the history of Italian exhibitions.

(F5)

It promises to be special in 2026, and the reason for the expectation has a name: . Amid so many influencers trying hard to learn how to samba, she, to everyone’s joy, majestically returns to the role of drum queen of Unidos do Viradouro after 17 long years away. And we will still have, what a woman!, as queen of honor of Grande Rio, a position created for her.

Another image that should be striking: the lover from “The Secret Agent” smoking her cigarette alongside Wagner Moura on the Oscars red carpet. Have you ever imagined how delicious it would be? Let’s campaign on the networks, Olinda doll in honor of both of them. Then we move on to the World Cup and Rock in Rio and experience our moments of joy in a year that has everything to be tense in politics and the economy.

(Turismo)

Mass tourism is expected to reach saturation as residents of cities such as Paris and Venice rise up against visitors. Places should start to emerge, the super-rich will seek out even more unusual experiences (from exclusive safaris to space tours), and they should win.

The World Cup, one of the host countries, despite the American government’s attitude of increasing , including checking social networks. In Brazil, traveling to other regions will still be very expensive, which could increase road tourism around where people live.

(Guide + Food)

The martini is not only resisting in the city’s bars, it will also advance at the counters — in the opposite direction. The drink was part of a trend in New York, where it became a hit served with Caesar salad and fries or just fries. Called “NYC happy meal” or “adult happy meal” (a pun on “mc happy meal”), it contrasts the unctuous frying with the dry and alcoholic finish of the drink. In São Paulo, you can try it at , in Santa Cecília.

Recipe with thousands of possibilities (the base, gin or vodka; the proportion of vermouth; the preparation method), allows for almost endless reinterpretations. One of the good ones is at , also in Santa Cecília: dirty umeboshi martini, made with gin, dry vermouth and preserved Japanese plums. The became an entire section in this year’s menu, in variations that recall the alcoholic fashion of the 1990s and 2000s. How about toasting the New Year with a celery and green apple martini?

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