The US currency fell 1.18% this Friday (Jan 2); Ibovespa, B3’s main index, is falling
The commercial dollar fell to R$ 5.424 this Friday (Jan 2, 2026), which marked the 1st trading session of financial assets in 2026. The North American currency fell 1.18%. It reached R$5.416 at its minimum and R$5.476 at its maximum. Ibovespa, the main index of B3 (São Paulo Stock Exchange), registered a drop of 0.36% at 5:05 pm, at 160,542 points.
In the week (from December 29th to January 2nd), the dollar fell 2.16%. Financial agents are waiting for next week, which will see the release of economic activity data from the United States. The North American country will publish on Friday (January 9, 2026) the payrollthe report with labor market indicators.
O Poder360 on Tuesday (Dec 30, 2025) that the commercial dollar fell 11.18% in 2025. This was the biggest devaluation of the currency since 2016.
O (Federal Reservethe US central bank) resumed the interest rate cutting cycle last year. The range. Lower rates reduce the yield on US government bonds and increase investors’ risk appetite.
Furthermore, the United States’ trade policy has caused financial agents and the countries’ central banks to .
The increase in debt and government paralysis (shutdown) from the United States also moved assets.
Throughout the year, investors reacted to changes in expectations regarding interest rates, inflation, fiscal policy and the external environment, in a scenario of recurring uncertainties. The pricing implemented by the President of the United States (Republican Party) increased volatility.
The (Central Bank) set the basic rate, the Selic, to 15% per year in June, a level that remains to this day. The monetary authority defends a prolonged monetary tightening to bring inflation to the center of the target, of 3%.
Investors also monitor economic activity data. The (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) published this Tuesday (Dec 30, 2025) that the unemployment rate, the lowest level in the historical series, started in 2012.
The Central Bank that the job market has shown signs “incipient” of cool-down. It argues that the “inflationary vectors” remain adverse and impact, in particular, service inflation.
Projections by financial agents indicate that the dollar will close 2026 at R$5.50. Fiscal uncertainties are on economists’ radar. The Central Bank announced this Tuesday (Dec 30, 2025) that the nominal deficit accumulated in 12 months of the consolidated public sector – made up of the union, States, municipalities and state-owned companies – amounted to . Brazil’s gross debt of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) last month exceeded R$10 trillion.
Financial agents estimate that there will be an increase in public spending in 2025 because of the elections. Fiscal expansion can impact family consumption and, consequently, put pressure on inflation in services. The movement could delay the interest rate cut cycle and increase the cost of public debt.
In the electoral scenario, the president (PT) leads in the 1st round against all other right-wing candidates tested, including Flávio Bolsonaro, according to .
The study also tested possible 2nd round scenarios. The PT member appears tied with the majority of right-wing names tested. She is ahead only of the senator (PP).
