O Ibovespa had a 2025 of record renewals and gains of 34% in the year, the best annual performance since 2016. After the positive period, investors are evaluating what could impact the Stock Exchange for 2026 and what are the possible directions of the main Brazilian stock index.
O CNN Money heard from experts who evaluate what could lift — or bring down — stocks during the year.
Selic cut
For José Faria Júnior, partner at Wagner Investimentos, it should be positive for Ibovespa.
“In general terms, when there is a Selic cut, the Stock Exchange performs well and generally starts to rise a little before the interest rate cut. So, theoretically, we are in a good period to make investments on the Stock Exchange specifically thinking about this”, he stated.
The reduction in Selic leads to Ibovespa projections of between 170 thousand and 180 thousand points, according to Ian Lopes, economist at Valor Investimentos.
He also comments that sectors most impacted by the possible drop in interest rates are those related to consumption, such as retail, and those that operate with greater leverage, such as small caps.
“This naturally gives a boost to the balance sheet of these companies, especially in the retail sector, the consumer sector as a whole”, he stated.
Elections
Lopes emphasizes, however, that investors must be prepared for market variations in 2026.
“It’s a year of a lot of volatility because we have elections, and we know that election years generate volatility due to political instability”, he commented.
To protect yourself from electoral instability, the economist recommends sectors that demonstrate more resistance in the economy.
“The most resilient sectors, which always have demand, are the banking sectors, insurance companies, the large exporters of commodities of Brazil generally perform very well in periods of low and high Selic”, he advised.
and says that a centrist candidate could be positive for the Brazilian market.
“If we have a change of political pendulum towards a centrist government, more linked to economic liberalism, Brazilian assets certainly have a lot to improve. But if it continues in the hands of the current government, the Stock Exchange may not have a very big drop, but you won’t be optimistic either”, he assessed.
He considers that the fiscal deficit accumulated during the Lula government is a fundamental part of investors’ pessimism about a possible new victory in 2026, which could keep the Selic at a restrictive level.
“Brazil has an 8%, 9% deficit. So, this makes interest rates high. If a government doesn’t come in and fix the fiscal system, then it’s difficult for interest rates to fall and it’s difficult for you to have a good performance on the Stock Exchange,” he explained.
