The duration of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will depend significantly on the negotiations that will be mediated by US President Donald Trump, according to an analysis by Ricardo Salvador De Toma, PhD in International Strategic Studies, during his participation in the WW this Thursday (2).
According to the expert, it is essential to understand what Vladimir Putin considers as a victory in the conflict.
“The question is to understand what. Either it would be the strategic objective, or it would be Europe’s position in the face of this strong Russian resistance”, explained De Toma.
The expert highlighted that Russia has demonstrated the ability to resist the economic and geopolitical pressures imposed by the West, maintaining its determination to defend its space of influence and preserve control over the occupied territories in Ukraine.
“Now, the question of time depends a lot on how this negotiation is measured, which is obviously taking Trump and which certainly represents a great challenge for him,” he stated.
External factors
A crucial element for the outcome of the conflict, according to De Toma, will be the mid-term elections in the USA, scheduled for 2026. The expert recalled that a large part of the American electorate is in favor of policies that do not financially compromise the country in external conflicts.
“The American electoral base was basically in favor of a policy where Americans would not have to financially bear external conflicts, conflicts that would take American soldiers, to American capitals, to other borders”, observed the expert.
De Toma also mentioned the possibility of a convergence of interests between Trump and Putin around the need to reestablish peace, which could influence them to end the conflict that has already lasted more than two years.
