New year, same upward trend. The year starts with increases despite the fact that the strong advances registered in 2025 have led the listed companies to more than demanding valuations that will test the tranquility of investors. The markets are preparing for an exercise that will test the rebound led by artificial intelligence and the fear of new chapters of geopolitical instability that cause corrections of greater or lesser degree.
European stock markets have started the year with increases after 2025 in which they made strong advances. The Stoxx Europe 600 has revalidated its records and the British Ftse 100 has managed to exceed 10,000 points for the first time thanks to the pull of mining companies and banks. Maximums that the Ibex also records. The index, which ended last year with a revaluation of 49.3% in its best annual balance in 50 years, gained 0.6%, enough to exceed the level of 17,400 points and revalidate records.
Increases are led by Grifols (4%), while firms such as Acerinox, Indra, Repsol and Acciona Energía advance more than 2%. Added to them is the banking sector, with increases of between 1.4% for Unicaja and 0.2% for Santander.
In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 adds 0.6% while the French Cac and the German Dax limit advances to 0.3%. In Asia, markets in Japan and China are closed this Friday, resulting in low trading volume and little movement. For its part, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong gained 2.61%.
Wall Street futures are responsible for driving the bullish trend. The S&P 500 points to opening gains of 0.6% and Nasdaq technology futures rise nearly 1%. All of this after a 2025 marked by the United States’ tariff policy, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate drops and the ‘boom’ of artificial intelligence (AI), which has propelled the technology sector.
Keys of the day
- The international context is marked by the volatility generated by the armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, trade tensions and doubts about Artificial Intelligence (AI).
- The European Central Bank (ECB), with inflation controlled at 2% compared to the sticky inflation of the US at 3%, has been progressively lowering rates throughout the year, until consolidating them at 2%.
- The economic uncertainty generated by import tariffs, among other measures of the Trump Government, complicated the fulfillment of the double mandate of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which undertook three interest rate cuts, in September, October and December.
- Much of investor attention this year will focus on the strength of the US economy and the path of the Fed’s monetary policy. Traders estimate only a 15% chance that the US central bank will ease rates this month, although they expect two more cuts this year.
- A raft of economic data delayed by the US government shutdown will be released in the coming days and could be key in determining how far rate cuts can go.
- The deterioration of manufacturing activity in the eurozone worsened last December due to the weakening of demand, which pushed the manufacturing PMI index to 48.8 points, compared to 49.6 the previous month, which represents its worst reading since last March, according to data from S&P Global.
What do the analysts say?
“The US stock market rally in 2025 has been driven by AI euphoria, strong corporate earnings, share buybacks and strong retail flows,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer at Nuveen. “Bursts of volatility, such as those caused by macroeconomic, geopolitical and political uncertainty, as well as periodic changes in sentiment around AI, are likely to continue to be a feature of stock markets, meaning that investors… Should expect more setbacks next year.”
“While the administration will likely nominate more moderate voting members to join the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), we expect the debate over the quality of the candidates to focus on their market knowledge and credentials,” says Debbie Cunningham, chief investment officer of global liquidity markets at Federated Hermes. “The names being considered to succeed Powell seem to fit his desire to influence the Fed, but I hope that the Senate confirmation process focuses on his experience in monetary policy and that this maintains the integrity of the institution.”
What is the evolution of debt, currencies and raw materials?
It remains stable at 1.1752 dollars on the first trading day of 2026. The single currency has appreciated a notable 13.4% against the dollar in 2025, until it is exchanged for 1.1743 ‘greenbacks’. All of this, in a context marked by the Trump Administration’s pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates, which have closed the year with the ‘price of money’ at 3.5-3.75%.
Precious metals extend their bullish streak, with spot silver rising 1.5% to $4,378.32 an ounce, while spot silver soared 3.6% to $73.85 an ounce. Precious metals sealed a record year in 2025, with gold 70% more expensive and silver 160% more valued. Bitcoin, which hit a record high of $125,000 at the end of September, is trading at around $88,000.
In commodities, oil prices rose slightly on Friday after posting their biggest annual loss since 2020. Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $61.15 a barrel.
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