And now what?: the uncertain scenario that opens in Venezuela after the capture of Maduro by the US

The threat was consummated and the materialized in the early hours of January 3, along with the capture and detention of the president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores.

Since 2020, the United States has maintained formal accusations against Nicolás Maduro for drug trafficking and terrorismwith a reward of $50 million for information leading to his arrest.

The US Army’s Delta Force, an elite special forces unit, carried out the operation to capture Maduro, based on information from the CIA. The question is obligatory: what now?

The judicial future of Maduro and Flores

The Attorney General of the United States, Pamela Bondi, has confirmed the indictment of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores in the Southern District of New York (Brooklyn’s Justice Court), “for narcoterrorism conspiracy, conspiracy to import cocaine, possession of machine guns and destructive devicesand conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices against the United States.”

“They will soon face the full weight of American justice”

Bondi stated that both “will soon face the full weight of American justice on American soil and before American courts.”

Immediate situation in Venezuela

After the bombings and the announced capture, the country is under national emergencywith power outages, explosions in various areas of Caracas and Chavista commanders trying to show that there is still a power structure

It is not clear who is really in charge: The Constitution provides that the vice president or the president of the National Assembly takes office.but Chavismo can try to maintain a “Madurismo without Maduro” while the opposition demands a transitional government.

Now what, according to Trump

Meanwhile, in the middle of the afternoon, Donald Trump from his resort and residence at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, to explain the details of the operation in Venezuela and the arrest of Maduro, also talking about US plans in the Caribbean country and its immediate future.

Trump literally stated that “we are going to run the country now” until a “proper transition” can occur, suggesting direct US tutelage over Venezuela and warning senior officials and officials who remain loyal to Maduro that “the future will be very bad for them.”

Regarding the oil and economic future, Trump did not hold back when predicting a lot of oil and money: he announced that “the big American oil companies” will go to Venezuela to “fix the destroyed oil infrastructure” and “invest billions”, with the promise that “they will start making money for the country”.

However, politically he did not present a clear outline about who will govern in Venezuela in the short term: mentioned that the country has a vice president, without committing to an electoral calendar nor to a specific role of the Venezuelan opposition.

Who will rule in Venezuela? The letter from María Corina Machado

Apart from the mechanisms, real power may pass to a civil-military nucleus headed by figures from the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and senior army officers.

Experts from and of Council on Foreign Relations agree that An arrest would not automatically imply a change of regime. Chavismo today is a choral power structure, with multiple decision-making centers and a strong dependence on the Armed Forces.

The Bolivarian National Armed Forces are the key factor. they emphasize that His loyalty is not ideological, but functional: control of companies, ports, mining and logistics. As long as that balance is not broken, there would be no immediate collapse of power, but it has already been broken.

“The time for freedom has come”: this is how the letter begins Maria Corina Machado has addressed Venezuelans hours after Maduro’s capture. He attributes the decision to “enforce the law” to the United States after the failure of a negotiated solution. The text proclaims the return of popular sovereignty, promises to free political prisoners, “put order” and rebuild the countrys, and emphasizes that “what had to happen is happening” after years of struggle.

However, Trump has made it clear that María Corina “It would be very difficult for her to be the leader. She does not have the internal support or respect of the country”.

At the institutional level, the document states that Edmundo González Urrutia was elected “legitimate President” and demands his recognition as Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces. He calls to “enforce the mandate and take power”, calls for mobilization and organization inside and outside the country, and anticipates instructions through official channels. It closes with a message of cohesion and determination—”Venezuela will be free”—and a call to stay alert and in touch in “decisive hours.”

The risk of fragmentation and violence

It would not be an orderly transition, but an internal struggle. Analysts of the Brookings Institution warn of three specific risks: division in the military establishment, with regional commanders acting on their own, intensification of internal repression, to demonstrate control and localized social explosions, in a country with more than 80% of the population in poverty, according to Encovi.

However, the Venezuelan opposition He has been preparing “100 hour and 100 day plans” for years for a post-Maduro government (security, macroeconomic stabilization, oil, humanitarian aid), which had been informally shared with the US administration; Now the question is whether they have real power within the country to apply them.

The voice of an expert: “The moment is not coincidental”

According to Tiziano Bredasenior analyst for Latin America at ACLED, “the timing is not coincidental; it seems to be aimed at undermining the anniversary of Maduro’s most recent mandate,” he says.

To Breda, The escalation comes after months of increasing US pressure on Maduro for alleged links to drug trafficking, including attacks against dozens of alleged smuggling vessels and actions against several oil tankers. These measures failed to break Maduro’s inner circle, and Washington has moved from operations at sea to direct action in Venezuelan territory.

“What happens next will depend on the response of the Venezuelan government and armed forces”he adds. They have so far avoided direct confrontation with US forces, but the deployments on the streets point to efforts to contain the unrest.

“A smooth transition remains unlikely, and the risk of resistance by pro-regime armed groups, including elements within the army and Colombian rebel networks active in the country, remains high,” he concludes.

Opinions of analysts and think tanks

On the one hand, there are the optimists (Brookings, CFR, some neoconservatives), who see an opportunity to restore democracy if the US supports the opposition with economic and security aid, regardless of intervention; María Corina Machado and Edmundo González could lead a provisional government with quick electionsand the army agree to avoid trials.

In , New York Times, The Guardianwhich They warn of a “Latin Vietnam” or “Afghanistan 2.0” with a power vacuum, armed factions (collectives, ELN), warlords and more violence; The history of post-authoritarian transitions in the region is “even,” and the army will not evaporate with a power vacuum, armed factions and more violence.