The plans of the governor () to run for the Senate and that of the president of Alerj, (União Brasil), made an unprecedented and, now, unpredictable indirect election for the command of the Guanabara Palace imminent in the first half of 2026.
The current scenario places the interests of the governor and the senator (PL-RJ) on opposite sides. The two will decide by February, together with deputy Altineu Côrtes, president of PL-RJ, the new strategy to be adopted.
The lack of definition is the result of Castro’s efforts in the first half of last year to give visibility to Bacellar, at the time his favorite for the succession.
The disintegration of the succession line began in May, when the governor convinced former vice-governor Thiago Pampolha to leave his position at the State Audit Court in order to make room for the then president of Alerj (Legislative Assembly).
The design predicted Castro’s resignation to run for the Senate. Under the plan, Bacellar would be chosen by Alerj, where he had broad support, in an indirect election as the new governor to run for re-election in October.
As determined by Minister Alexandre de Moraes, of the (Supreme Federal Court), the name of the “buffer governor” became a topic of discussion within the PL, which has a majority in Alerj. Bacellar was removed on suspicion of leaking information about the operation, linked to Comando Vermelho. He denies it.
The debate intensified with the pre-candidacy of Flávio Bolsonaro. One of the two spots on the ticket was reserved for the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro to seek re-election. The other was the target of internal disputes, including the governor. Without the senator, Castro’s postulation gained captive space.
In the new scenario, the governor wants to appoint his Civil House secretary, Nicola Miccione, as a buffer, seen as a technical staff with no political intentions for the October election. He is a trusted name for Castro, which would guarantee the machine’s action in favor of his candidacy for the Senate. Miccione joined the PL in November.
The senator, in turn, wants to nominate a name that will also run for state government in October, in order to form a competitive platform for his future candidacy for President.
The PL decided to carry out research involving names considered potential candidates for the position. One of them is the state secretary of Cities, Douglas Ruas (PL), son of captain Nelson Ruas, mayor of São Gonçalo, the third largest electoral college in the state.
Another name is that of the Civil Police Secretary, Felipe Curi, who gained notoriety for his exposure after, including five police officers. The name of the mayor of Itaboraí, Marcelo Dellaroli (PL), re-elected with 93.79% of valid votes, will also be tested.
A name also evaluated is Rodolfo Landim, former president of Flamengo.
The also wants to evaluate the name of the mayor of Belford Roxo, Marcelo Canella. His name is viewed with reservations by members of the PL due to the wear and tear caused by the appointment, during his tenure, of secretaries.
The lack of definition of names is aggravated by the legal uncertainty experienced in Rio de Janeiro politics. There is fear among Bacellar’s allies about those of the president of Alerj.
Castro’s situation is also undefined due to the process in which the Public Electoral Ministry requests his revocation and ineligibility due to the case of the “secret sheets” for payment of state foundations. The case is in the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) with the governor’s decision by minister Isabel Gallotti.
The trial was interrupted after a request from Minister Antônio Carlos. The magistrate asked for an extension, but behind the scenes, the expectation is that he will release the case at the beginning of February.
The expectation at the Guanabara Palace is that another minister will request a view, giving time for the governor to carry out his “buffer succession” in due course. If he is removed from office, the state Constitution provides for a direct election. For this reason, a waiver before trial is not ruled out if there is no guarantee of postponing the analysis of the case.
Alerj will also need to define the election rules, as government replacement in the event of vacancy in positions is not regulated.
