Lula starts the year with better approval than in 2006, but with more electoral challenges

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva begins his last year in office with more favorable approval ratings than 20 years ago, when he was re-elected, but in a scenario of greater uncertainty than that faced at the time. Faced with an environment of political polarization, analysts point out that issues such as public security, economic insecurity and the lack of attention to groups such as informal workers could make it difficult for the PT member to win the seat for the fourth time.

In 2025, Lula faced a popularity crisis that took his approval ratings to the lowest levels of his three terms, but he reached the end of the year with an excellent and good rating for his administration higher than that he had at the beginning of 2006, when he was on his way to contest his first re-election, with, at the time, his main rival being the former tucano and now vice-president Geraldo Alckmin.

In December 2005, only 28% of voters classified Lula’s government as excellent or good, according to Datafolha, a sharp drop from the 45% recorded a year earlier. The main factor of wear and tear was the Mensalão scandal, which dominated the news and was systematically exploited by the tucana opposition in the pre-election campaign.

In 2025, the president’s approval rose from 24% in February to 32% in the most recent Datafolha survey — the index was close to that recorded at the end of 2024 before the drop in popularity with the Pix crisis. If food inflation was the main factor causing wear and tear, particularly affecting low-income voters, throughout the year, a record grain harvest and the maintenance of interest rates at a high level contributed to slowing down prices. Accumulated inflation in 12 months in the food and beverage group fell from around 7% to 3.88%, according to the IPCA.

Distinct context

The experts’ assessment is that, despite the evaluation level being better than 20 years ago and the potentially positive news, such as the prospect of interest rates falling from February onwards, the current economic context is less favorable than that of 2006.

— At that time, the economy was accelerating. Now, the trend is for growth to slow down, partly caused by high interest rates. Still, the three factors that most influence popularity (economic growth, unemployment and inflation levels) start 2026 at positive levels — says political scientist Antônio Lavareda, from Ipespe.

On the other hand, unlike 2006, the political environment is more adverse for the opposition than for the government. The tariff imposed by President Donald Trump on Brazilian exports and the lobbying carried out by Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) in the USA in favor of sanctions on Brazil and Brazilian authorities weighed in favor of Lula’s popularity.

— The opposition is the one accumulating scandals, having Bolsonaro arrested for involvement in the coup plot and facing difficulties in articulation, without a defined candidate yet. Donald Trump’s tariffs ended up favoring Lula, reinforcing nationalist rhetoric and the defense of sovereignty — recalls Aldo Fornazieri, director of the São Paulo School of Sociology and Politics Foundation.

Still, those who closely follow the electoral scenario cite important structural differences between the periods. For Mauro Paulino, former director of the Datafolha Institute, it is necessary to take into account that, in 2006, social networks did not have the weight they have today. For him, issues such as public security and economic insecurity have gained centrality in defining the vote, especially among young people and women, and could weigh against the Lula government.

— The way voting is decided has changed radically, which compromises direct comparisons with previous elections — he says. — There is a shift of young people to positions more towards the center and center-right, and a growing concern among women, especially from the peripheries, with violence and food inflation.

Central agenda

Public security, in particular, tends to occupy a central space in the electoral debate. November’s Quaest survey shows that 38% of voters already consider violence to be the country’s main problem.

The topic is one of the sensitive points for the PT government, which was unable to approve its main proposals for the area in 2025 — the Proposed Amendment to the Public Security Constitution and the Antifaction project. At the same time, the matter should be discussed mainly by candidates opposing Lula.

Political science professor Moisés Marques, from the São Paulo School of Sociology and Politics Foundation, states that the governor of Rio de Janeiro, Cláudio Castro (PL), “put the goat in the room” with the operation against the Red Command that left 121 dead and showed how the issue has the potential to erode Lula’s image. Surveys showed that the majority of the population supported the offensive and opposed the president’s assessment that it was a “killing”.

— I see three factors as variables that make re-election difficult: fatigue, public insecurity and the agenda of moral values. Lula will need to show what will be new for his fourth term, his capacity for renewal — says Marques.

The assessment among political scientists is that Lula failed to connect his government with new demands from society. Although it has managed to move forward with economic agendas, such as income tax exemption for those earning up to R$5,000, they cite informal entrepreneurs, who were less impacted by government programs. Lula took a long time to try to position himself among this public and could have negative consequences from this at the polls, assesses Creomar de Souza, CEO of Consultoria Política Dharma and professor at Fundação Dom Cabral.

— Every incumbent in a full electoral democracy will have to face the fact that, as they fail to deliver everything they promise and as people fail to find solutions to their problems, they will punish by voting. It’s an election in which whoever makes the least mistakes and creates the least confusion for themselves wins. It will be by elimination.

App drivers and delivery people are part of a political group that is neither right-wing nor left-wing, in the view of Maurício Moura, founder and president of Instituto Ideia and professor at George Washington University. Moura points out that it is a segment of the population that the PT does not have the ability to deal with and that it is part of a narrow margin of the population that will decide the election.

— We are in the era of oppositions and alternation of power; Presidents are elected with half the country hating them. The margin of dispute will be 3%, which will decide the election. Half of the country does not approve and the other half does. Wherever the 3% go, the election will be decided. It’s an opposition election with a president with low popularity — he assesses.

Points of concern for Lula

1. Security agenda: While the issue is cited by 38% of voters as the country’s main problem, according to the Genial/Quaest survey — the highest level among areas — the Lula government was unable to approve its main proposals for public security in 2025.
2. Economic insecurity: Although economic growth rates, unemployment and inflation levels start the year with positive results, the trend is towards a slowdown in growth, partly caused by high interest rates, a situation very different from that of 2006.
3. Informal entrepreneurs: Less impacted by federal programs, informal entrepreneurs are a public with which the government has difficulty communicating and offering public policies. Examples of this segment are app drivers and delivery people.