US President Donald Trump’s threat to intervene in Iranian protests gained new urgency for Tehran after the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by the US, with increasing uncertainty about how far the Republican is willing to go in foreign policy, according to analysts.
“This confirms that Trump is unpredictable and that everything is really up in the air regarding Iran,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a think tank in London.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry called on the United Nations (UN) to intervene to stop what it called Washington’s “illegal aggression” against Venezuela and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the capture “a clear example of state terrorism.”
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For Iranian consultant at geopolitical advisory firm Global Growth Advisors, Roozbeh Aliabadi, Maduro’s capture will now force the Iranian regime to consider more carefully the possibility of forcibly deposing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. “Maduro’s capture completely changes the game for Iran. It opens up possibilities that didn’t exist before in Iran,” he explains.
In recent days, Iran has witnessed growing protests triggered by dissatisfaction with the Islamic Republic’s weakened economy, which are putting new pressure on the Iranian theocracy. Tehran is still recovering from the 12-day war started by Israel in June, which led to the US bombing nuclear facilities in Iran.
Economic pressure, intensified in September with the return of United Nations sanctions against the country over its atomic program, has caused the Iranian rial to plummet, currently trading at around 1.4 million to the dollar.
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“2026 starts as a nightmare for the Iranian leadership,” said Mustapha Pakzad, a geopolitical analyst specializing in Iran. “The regime’s options have been significantly narrowed.”
