“Cuba seems to be about to fall, It is definitely sinking. “I don’t know how they are going to be able to support themselves, they have no income.” Donald Trump predicted that outcome on the basis of a shared reasoning in USA. “They received all their income from Venezuela“When the US seized the ‘Skipper’ ship last December, it was carrying almost two million barrels of heavy crude oil to the island. The capture of Nicolas Maduro is a major blow to Havana because among the menu of Washington’s impositions on the successor, Delcy Rodríguez, it is expected that the complete cutoff of oil supply to the island. If that happens, the Republican magnate slipped, “I don’t think we need any action” to put an end to the hegemony of the Communist Party on the island. It is, from now on, a burning dream of Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, and Mauricio Claver-Carone, the United States special envoy for Latin America, both sons of Cubans.
The economic crisis in the largest of the Antilles is of unprecedented severity. According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), GDP will decrease by around 1.5% in 2025. Added to this is a cycle of contractions that began in 2018 and which accumulates 18% losses of national wealth. President Miguel Díaz Canel He did not overlook the enormous difficulties when speaking during the last session of the People’s Power Assembly. Cuba, he told lawmakers, is going through “an extremely complex moment” that “demands deeper, faster and more responsible responses.” It is not “just another crisis” but rather “the accumulation of distortions, adversities, difficulties and own errorsexacerbated by an extremely aggressive external siege.” Díaz Canel recognized that although the North American sanctions cause very negative effects – estimated at 7.5 billion dollars during the last two years, according to the last resolution approved against the blockade at the UN – it has been the excesses in the management of the economy that deepened the deterioration to the point of making life for Cubans intolerable and causing an unprecedented exodus.
From the USSR to Chávez
The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 left the island adrift. Moscow was a supplier of crude oil and machinery. The hardships were of proportions in the 90s. Part of the economic assistance was recomposed after the arrival to power of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. The cooperation was based on a highly political exchange: medical and security assistance for oil. Caracas became the main energy supplier. According to experts, PDVSA contributed 100,000 barrels per day. Last year there were about 27,000. The Cuban economy requires about 120,000 barrels to function and not plunge the country into recurring blackouts. As of January 3, it seems to be very difficult for the flow to continue, at least if Trump’s aspiration to control the Venezuelan internal situation is taken literally. “We are in charge,” the tycoon boasted. Previously, he had told the weekly The Atlantic yes Delcy Rodriguez “he does not do the right thing” a “worse” future awaits him than Maduro’s.
The end of Venezuelan oil supplies would put the island closer to the cliff line. Russia could be an alternative for Havana. However, the war in Ukraineits financial problems and the pursuit of its own “ghost fleet” would not allow for an immediate replacement. Mexico It has sent about 23,000 barrels a day, but this year only about 2,500. China would be in a position to provide greater financing to Havana only for a strategic decision in the midst of the increasingly intense dispute with the United States for economic predominance in Latin America.
Ordinary Cubans do not wait. To the blackouts, shortages of food and medicine, and inflation, the deterioration of public services, health and education has been added.which were the coat of arms of the State. The crisis social has introduced unknown figures for decades: the beggingthe juvenile delinquency. At the same time, banished diseases returned. The health system was overwhelmed by an epidemic of dengue y chikungunya. He Hurricane Melissamonths ago, caused destruction in five provinces: the image of the disaster was interpreted as a general future for the entire island.
The military question
Trump seems to trust in a “natural” decantation of the prolonged crisis as a trigger for the changes Washington has desired for decades. The fall of Maduro may, however, be the reason for other interpretations that support the hypothesis of more direct North American interference. The Díaz Canel Government recognized the death of 32 Cuban soldiers in the attack carried out by the United States against Maduro’s presidential bunker. The Cubans belonged to the Revolutionary Armed Forces and the Ministry of the Interior, and they were in Caracas “at the request of counterpart bodies in that country.” They “did their duty with dignity and fell, after fierce resistance, in direct combat against the attackers or as a result of the bombing of the facilities.” It is not ruled out that under the excuse of the Cuban military presence in Venezuela Trump will now find arguments to go beyond economic asphyxiation.
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