In an inauguration that brought together the opposition in Porto Seguro, an image of former senator Antônio Carlos Magalhães (1927-2007) generated by artificial intelligence appears on the screen in a speech that talks about his love for Bahia and encourages () to be a candidate for governor.
On the same day, at the end of December, the former mayor of Bahia confirmed that he will challenge the governor () again in 2026: “Yes, I am a candidate for governor of Bahia”, said ACM Neto in an event marked by an exaltation of his grandfather’s memory and criticism of the PT.
The speech kicked off the succession to the Government of Bahia, which is expected to repeat the 2022 clash between Jerônimo and ACM Neto. This time, however, the dispute will have new ingredients, such as a possible pure PT ticket and a unified opposition in the state.
As in 2022, the PT must adopt the strategy of nationalizing the dispute in search of a married vote in Jerônimo and . In that election, the president received 72.1% of the votes in the second round in Bahia, while the governor reached 52.7%.
ACM Neto, who adopted a strategy of neutrality in relation to the national election and did not declare a vote in 2022, now signals that he will be “against the PT” in 2026. But the strategy will be to focus on state issues and avoid direct clashes with President Lula.
Unlike 2022, when the PL ran in its own lane, the largest opposition parties will be united in Bahia. Candidate for government in the last election, the former Minister of Citizenship () resumed relations with ACM Neto and should be a candidate for the Senate.
The approach took place in a scenario of setbacks for the opposition, which suffered wear and tear with , which is investigating names from União Brasil on suspicion of corruption with parliamentary amendments. In recent months, however, the group managed to get out of the ropes and gained new momentum by attracting two deputies who were from the government base.
On the national scene, the decision is made by a state platform open to all opposition presidential candidates, including names such as (União Brasil), Ratinho Júnior (PSD), Romeu Zema (Novo) and (PL-RJ).
Preferred among the parties in the center, the governor of , (Republicans), is seen as a remote option after the former president (PL) endorsed his son’s candidacy.
In the government camp, Jerônimo should enter the dispute with a well-oiled political machine, the support of more than 300 mayors and the status of governor closest to the interior.
On the other hand, he is going for re-election in a less comfortable scenario than his predecessors, facing criticism in areas such as public security and the wear and tear of a 20-year PT cycle in Bahia.
In , he confirmed that he is a candidate for re-election, dispelling rumors of a possible candidacy for the government of the Minister of the Civil House, .
In the political field, his main challenge is to find a solution to an imbroglio involving the dispute for the Senate. The PT is rehearsing the formation of a pure ticket, with Rui Costa and Senator Rui Costa, both former governors, as candidates for the Senate.
This formation, however, would eliminate senator Angelo Coronel (PSD) from the ticket. He has reiterated that he is a candidate for the Senate and does not rule out a separate candidacy, outside the PT ticket.
Despite the risk, the PT has insisted on the so-called “governors ticket” as it understands that this is the most competitive formation to re-elect Jerônimo and help Lula maintain the four million vote lead he had in Bahia in 2022.
Two weeks ago, Jaques Wagner posted a video with images alongside Rui Costa and Jerônimo: “This is the work team, which runs through Bahia and Brazil to bring dignity to our people”, he wrote.
The governor signaled possible compensations to allies: “My challenge is to ensure that our base parties don’t get hurt. We don’t talk behind their backs, but by looking each other in the eye. And compensating when it is possible to compensate”, he stated.
Behind the scenes, the idea is for Senator Angelo Coronel’s son, federal deputy Diego Coronel (PSD), to be a candidate for vice-governor. This design, however, would generate a crisis with the MDB, which defends the maintenance of vice-governor Geraldo Júnior (MDB) on the ticket.
Otto Alencar (PSD), who is in the middle of his term in the Senate and will not run for office, was awarded the nomination of his son, federal deputy Otto Alencar Filho (PSD), for a seat at the State Court of Auditors.
In the assessment of political scientist Cláudio André de Souza, professor at Unilab (University of International Integration of Afro-Brazilian Lusofonia), Bahia is heading towards a new fierce election, which should be decided by the performance of the two candidates in large and medium-sized cities.
“Both the government and the opposition will seek to get closer to these municipalities. The opposition will try to expand its advantage in the 20, 30 largest cities, while the PT will try to reduce the difference and force the vote married to Lula”, he assesses.
For ACM Neto, the challenge is not to lose the votes he had among Lula voters in 2022, especially in the largest municipalities, and to reduce the difference for the PT member in small cities.
Jerônimo, in turn, will have the mission of stopping the wear and tear of the administration he has led over the last three years and consolidating a discourse that points to the future and convinces voters to maintain the political group that has governed the state for two decades.
In addition to Jerônimo and ACM Neto, former deputy José Carlos Aleluia (Novo) and party leader Ronaldo Mansur (PSOL) are also pre-candidates for the Government of Bahia.
