Among the seismic waves it sends around the globe, the always volatile situation in Taiwan reverberates. While the foreign ministries of half the planet fume to try to decipher the rules of a new world without rules, media and analysts are divided between those who believe that today the risk of China acting in a similar way in the Taiwan Strait has increased, and those who think just the opposite. There is no clear answer. Hazards of the brand new international disorder, in which certainties are not abundant.
US President Donald Trump stated on Sunday, in a veiled message to Russia and China, that the Latin American country had been “harboring foreign adversaries” and that “American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again.”
However, several academics interpret that the operation in Venezuela could have the opposite effect, and encourage them to advance pawns in their respective backyards. “By capturing a leader by military force, Trump may have opened Pandora’s box,” Elizabeth N. Saunders of Columbia University wrote on Monday in an analysis for the Washington-based Brookings Institute. “Colombia, Mexico and Taiwan watch with nervousness, while the Ukrainians probably do so with grim recognition.”
“The US military coup against Venezuela generates fears of imitation of the EPL [Ejército Popular de Liberación, el ejército chino] in Taiwan,” headlined an article on Monday in the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post, in which he reflected the alleged rising concern on the self-governed island regarding a possible operation by China. The fear draws, to a large extent, from the two days orchestrated by Beijing last week around Taiwan: the People’s Liberation Army simulated, among others, operations aimed at paralyzing Taiwan’s political and military command structures.
On the self-governed island, which China considers an inalienable part of its territory, and which the United States supports militarily, the authorities have been quick to make it clear that they are calm. When asked on Monday whether the PLA could try something similar, Taiwanese Deputy Defense Minister Hsu Szu-chien assured that the island’s armed forces have prepared for all types of contingencies, including an evacuation operation for the head of state.
“The unrest in Venezuela has demonstrated the importance of being prepared and ensuring that weapons are regularly updated and maintained,” Hsu said, according to the outlet. Taipei Times. In a meeting with legislators, the vice minister added that Venezuela’s weapons, obtained from China and Russia, “proved to be far inferior to American weapons” in the attack that led to the capture of Chavista leader Nicolás Maduro.
Meanwhile, any comparison with what happened in Venezuela is taken as an affront in Beijing. The same thing happened after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in which many Taiwanese looked at each other as if it were a warning. “The Taiwan question is a purely internal matter for China,” Lin Jian, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said on Monday when questioned in a routine appearance. “How to resolve the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese alone, and no external force is in a position to interfere.”
In his speech, he added that the “shameful attempts” of the Taiwanese authorities to request external support to seek “independence” and resist reunification by increasing military power “are doomed to failure.” China, which views Taiwan as a rebellious province, has never renounced the use of force for its reunification. Meanwhile, the United States maintains a pact with Taipei under which it supplies it with weapons, and rejects any change in the the state in which in the Strait by force or coercion.
Beijing has repeatedly shown a frontal rejection of Washington, and has demanded the “immediate release” of the Venezuelan president and his wife, Cilia Flores. “China expresses its deep shock and strongly condemns the action against a sovereign state and the actions directed against the president of another country,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Saturday.
“They are completely different issues,” also says Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Studies at Renmin University in Beijing. Consider the comparison a “wrong opinion.” Taiwan is an “internal” issue of China, while Venezuela is an “independent sovereign state.” What the United States has done in Latin America “is an invasion, it is imperialism,” he says through the Chinese messaging system Wechat.
Publicly, Taiwan has explained that it is closely monitoring the situation in the Caribbean country “both domestically and internationally, including the participation of the Venezuelan dictatorial regime in international drug trafficking, as well as the humanitarian crisis caused by its authoritarian government,” according to a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs collected on Monday by the Efe agency. In it, Taipei aligns itself with Washington, expresses the hope that Venezuela can move “peacefully towards a democratic system” and emphasizes that it will continue “cooperating with the United States and other global allies of freedom and democracy.”
In anonymous conversations, cited by the Bloomberg agency, officials from the island territory go further, and affirm that the capture of the Venezuelan leader is a timely reminder of the capacity of the United States to defeat armies equipped with Chinese-made weapons.
This reading is in keeping with Washington’s triumphant message. In line with President Donald Trump, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued another warning to China and Russia on Monday, declaring that the United States is rebuilding its military dominance to such an absolute level that its enemies “will not dare” to test it.
Aha Chu, CEO of Kuma Academy, one for citizens to learn how to deal with a possible Chinese invasion, agrees with this vision: “Trump’s arrest of Nicolás Maduro sends a clear signal of the determination of the United States to defend the order of the free world. This is not something that Xi Jinping will welcome,” he says by email.
He also considers that on the island, where Beijing tries to control the media message, they live under the influence of “false or misleading reports that exaggerate China’s military capabilities beyond reality, while minimizing the strength and determination of the free world, including the United States, Japan and Taiwan itself.”
The coup in Venezuela coincides with a context of growing tension in the Strait, after the United States advanced the procedures for (valued at more than 9.4 billion euros), and with those following statements by the Japanese Prime Minister, the ultra-conservative Sanae Takaichi, in which she suggested that a hypothetical Chinese attack against Taiwan could force her country to intervene militarily.
“The operation [en Venezuela] It shows mainland China that its military situation may not be good enough,” observes by phone Lin Ying-Yu, an assistant professor at Tamkang University (Taiwan), who specializes in the capabilities of the Chinese Army. He recalls the confrontation last year between Pakistan and India, in which the former, with Chinese military means, stood up to its rival. “Many thought that mainland China’s weapons systems may be good enough. But at this point we already know that India is not the United States. And Venezuela is not Pakistan either,” he reflects.
He believes that, in part, the Venezuelan defense was not effective given the interconnection problems between Chinese radar systems and the Russian anti-aircraft defenses acquired by Caracas. According to Bloomberg, there is no evidence that Chinese defense systems failed or suffered maintenance problems, and the United States has claimed that it had extensive intelligence sources operating inside Venezuela, which could have influenced how the military attack unfolded.
This analyst considers it “impossible” for Beijing to try to carry out a similar operation. It would face Taiwan’s anti-aircraft systems, which – these ones – are “good enough”, according to their vision. The defenses are in the process of integration and improvement: in October, the island Government announced the implementation of a new anti-aircraft shield, a dome against missiles similar to that of Israel.
