At the beginning of last year, Chevron seemed to have its days numbered in Venezuela.
The company was the last major American oil company still producing in the South American country, years after others, such as Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, had left. For years, Chevron operated under temporary exemptions from U.S. sanctions. But, at the end of February 2025, then-President Donald Trump said he would block the company’s production in Venezuela.
Ten months later, the situation has completely changed. Trump backed down in the middle of the year and allowed Chevron to continue operating in the country. Now the company is in a prime position to benefit after American forces captured President Nicolás Maduro last weekend in Caracas and increased pressure for the country to receive more investment from U.S. energy companies.
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This turnaround happened, in part, thanks to strong lobbying work, which included several conversations over the last year between Trump and Mike Wirth, the discreet CEO of Chevron.
But it was a bet made about 20 years ago that differentiated Chevron from other American producers in Venezuela. At the time, Hugo Chávez, the country’s president, was nationalizing parts of the oil industry, forcing foreign investors to accept smaller stakes in projects, without compensation.
Exxon, the largest oil company in the US, and ConocoPhillips left the country and have been trying, without much success, to receive billions of dollars in compensation from Venezuela. Chevron saw an opportunity.
“If we left every time we had a disagreement with the government, we would be leaving everywhere, including here,” Wirth told The Wall Street Journal last month.
Venezuela is known for having the largest oil reserves in the world and, for a time, exploited its resources heavily — in 1997, it produced almost 5% of the world’s oil. But mismanagement, corruption and neglect weakened the industry, and today the country produces around 1% of global oil.
For Chevron, the justification for remaining in Venezuela was simple, explained Ali Moshiri, who ran the company’s operations in the country at the time. In 2006, the company signed a new contract that gave it an equity stake in a major project rather than receiving a fee for production, said Moshiri, who had a good relationship with Chávez.
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Other companies didn’t like the changes Chávez wanted because they would earn less than their contracts predicted. But Moshiri saw the bright side: Chevron’s profits could grow if the price of oil rose in the future.
“We had a stake in the reserves and also took advantage of the appreciation”, said Moshiri in a recent interview with The New York Timesremembering how he explained this to the Chevron board. “The alternative was to do like Conoco: leave the country and wait to receive payment.”
Chevron has a long-term vision in several countries, in addition to Venezuela, such as Kazakhstan, Central Asia, which has some of the largest oil fields in the world, and Israel, where it develops two large gas fields.
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Continuing in Venezuela could bring even more advantages for Chevron. As the only Western company authorized by the US government to export Venezuelan oil, it is in a position, if political conditions improve, to increase production faster than companies that do not have a presence in the country.
Investors are optimistic. Chevron shares rose more than 5% on Monday (5), outperforming the general market, while Maduro was indicted in New York. The company, which did not make Wirth available for an interview, said it continued to operate in Venezuela “in full compliance with all laws and regulations.”
Shares of SLB and Weatherford, companies that do much of the drilling and other services for producers like Chevron, saw even bigger gains, around 9%. Investors are betting that these service companies will profit handsomely from greater access to Venezuelan oil fields.
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But any significant increase in Venezuela’s oil production will take years and require investments in the tens of billions of dollars. For now, US sanctions remain in effect, as does the “quarantine” for many tankers used to export Venezuelan oil.
There is also the price of oil, which on Monday was below US$60 a barrel, even after an increase of almost 2%. Without higher prices, companies are unlikely to rush into new projects, especially in a country with as many political risks as Venezuela.
Even if operating in Venezuela becomes easier, American companies are unlikely to invest much without guarantees that they will be able to operate in the country for many years without the risk of changes to contracts or nationalization.
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Wirth explained this dilemma in a 2023 earnings call, saying that because it operates under a temporary license from the Treasury Department, Chevron was not making “large investments” in Venezuela.
c.2026 The New York Times Company
