To paraphrase Bill Clinton, we could say: “Stupid!” What it seems, is. , the president of the United States, has attacked Venezuela and has taken its until now president, , to a New York prison supposedly for his ties to drug trafficking and to facilitate democracy in the country. But the first tangible, firm step that has been taken, CIA operation aside, has to do with natural resources.
Tonight, the Republican announced that Caracas and Washington have reached an agreement to export Venezuelan crude worth up to $2 billion to his country. This is a key negotiation that would help Venezuela avoid deeper cuts in oil production. Well, that would be it.
The agreement is a clear sign that the Venezuelan government is responding to Trump’s demand to open up to American oil companies or risk further military intervention. Trump has declared that he wants the interim president, , to grant the US and private companies “full access” to the Venezuelan oil industry.
Venezuela has millions of barrels of oil loaded on tankers and storage tanks that it has not been able to ship due to the export blockade imposed by Trump since mid-December. It is the country with the largest oil reserves on the planet, approximately 18%.
The blockade of these ships was part of the growing US pressure on the government of President Maduro, not recognized by Washington or a large part of Western countries after the 2024 elections (considered fraudulent), and which culminated in his capture by US forces last weekend. Senior Venezuelan officials have called Maduro’s capture a kidnapping and have accused the US of trying to steal the country’s vast oil reserves. It is one of the slogans of the pro-Chavez demonstrations these days: “Don’t bleed for oil.”
For now, the only thing known about the transition is that there will be no elections soon, but for example the White House does not say a word about the political prisoners in Venezuelan prisons, between 800 and a thousand, according to various NGOs.
United States President Donald Trump watches the capture of his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolás Maduro, in Washington, on January 3, 2026.
The details of the agreement
Venezuela will be “delivering” between 30 and 50 million barrels of “sanctioned oil” to the United States, Trump said tonight in a post on social media. “This oil will be sold at its market price, and that money will be controlled by me, as president of the United States, to ensure that it is used for the benefit of the people of Venezuela and the United States,” he added.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright is in charge of executing the agreement, the president said, adding that the oil will be extracted from the ships and shipped directly to US ports.
Supplying the trapped crude to the US could initially require reallocating shipments originally destined for China, two sources told . The Asian country has been Venezuela’s main buyer in the last decade, especially since Washington imposed sanctions on companies involved in oil trade with Venezuela in 2020. “Trump wants this to happen soon so he can say it is a great victory,” declared an oil industry source to the same agency.
blow to the allies
The initiative clearly seeks the benefit of North American companies, but it is doubly useful if it affects the interests of the Asian giant. What’s more, the Trump Administration has already informed Delcy Rodríguez that Venezuela must end at least part of its relations with China and, also, with Russia, Iran and Cuba – Maduro’s great allies in this long decade and even before – as part of a series of demands before extracting and marketing its oil, according to officials cited by the chain. The US, this media cites, seeks to be the only oil relationship and favor the United States in the sale of heavy crude oil.
According to one of his sources, the Secretary of State, , stated in a private briefing with legislators that the US believes it can pressure Caracas because its oil tankers are full and warned that Venezuela would have only a couple of weeks before falling into financial insolvency if it fails to sell its reserves.
In an interview with the same news network, Senator Roger Wicker confirmed that the plan is based on the control of Venezuelan oil and assured that it does not contemplate the deployment of US troops, as Trump’s entourage had already announced.
In addition, it is reported that the US plans a military and Coast Guard operation in Atlantic waters to board a Russian oil tanker, coming from Iran, and that escaped the US blockade when it was trying to reach Venezuela. The Marinera, an oil tanker that began its journey under the name Bela-1 and the Guyana flag in Iran and was placed under the protection of the Russian flag during its persecution by the United States, is subject to Treasury Department sanctions and is located in remote waters south of Iceland.
As the and two US officials confirmed to CBS News, Russia has sent a submarine and other military vessels to escort the Marinera, linked to companies with ties to Hezbollah, to a Russian port, given the threat that it will be confiscated by the US. This Tuesday, Russian state television RT shared an alleged image from the Marinera bridge in which a ship supposedly from the US Coast Guard can be seen closely following the oil tanker.
The Pentagon is monitoring the movements of the Russian tanker from Ireland and the United Kingdom and has deployed P-8 Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft in case of a possible boarding.
Who wins here
US crude oil prices have fallen more than 1.5% following Trump’s announcement this morning and the agreement is expected to increase the volume of Venezuelan oil exported to the US. A flow that is currently controlled entirely by Chevron (CVX.N), PDVSA’s main partner in the joint venture, under US authorization.
Chevron, which has been exporting between 100,000 and 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan oil to the US, is the only company that has been loading and shipping crude oil without interruption from the South American country in recent weeks, under the blockade.
It was not immediately clear whether Venezuela would have access to the revenue from the supply. The sanctions mean that PDVSA is excluded from the global financial system, its bank accounts are frozen and it cannot carry out transactions in US dollars. Venezuela has been selling its flagship crude oil, Merey, at a price close to $22 per barrel below the price of Brent for delivery to Venezuelan ports, giving a value of up to $1.9 billion for the operation.
Rodríguez, who assumed the interim presidency on Monday, is under US sanctions imposed in 2018 for attacking democracy.
A Chevron gas station in Yreka, California, shown in November 2024.
This is how it will be articulated
Venezuelan and U.S. officials this week discussed possible sales mechanisms, including auctions to allow interested U.S. buyers to bid for shipments, and the issuance of U.S. licenses to PDVSA’s trading partners that could lead to supply contracts, two sources told Reuters.
In the past, these licenses have allowed PDVSA’s joint venture partners and clients, such as Chevron, India’s Reliance (RELI.NS), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Europe’s Eni (ENI.MI), and Repsol (REP.MC), to access Venezuelan oil for refining or resale to third parties.
This week, some of these companies began to prepare to receive Venezuelan shipments again, according to two sources.
The United States and Venezuela have also discussed whether Venezuelan oil can be used in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the future, one of the sources said. Trump did not refer to this possibility.
U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum declared Tuesday that an increase in the flow of Venezuelan heavy oil to the Gulf of Mexico would be great news for job security, future U.S. gasoline prices and for Venezuela. “Venezuela now has the opportunity for capital to come in and rebuild its economy, and take advantage of it,” he told Fox News, when asked about talks between the governments on oil exports. “With American technology and American collaboration, Venezuela can be transformed.”
“Venezuela now has the opportunity for capital to enter and rebuild its economy, and take advantage of it”
US refineries on the Gulf Coast can process Venezuela’s heavy crude oil and were importing about 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) before Washington imposed energy sanctions on Venezuela.
PDVSA has already had to cut production due to the embargo, as it is running out of storage capacity for oil. Without a way to export oil soon, it would have to cut production further, according to one of the sources.
Oil traders reacted to news of the deal negotiations on Tuesday. Spreads on some heavy crude oils in the US Gulf fell about 50 cents a barrel on Tuesday on the prospect of higher Venezuelan supplies.
